Although Ashraf Ghani seems to be more enthusiastic for competing in the second round, based on the current calculations, probability of Abdullah’s win remains quite high.
On Thursday May 15, the Afghanistan Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced the final results of April 5th presidential election. The final results are not much different from previously-announced preliminary and partial results. The two leading contenders Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai have secured 45% and 31.6% of votes respectively.
As none of the eight candidates for the presidential seat has been able to reach the winning mark of more than 50% of votes, based on the constitutional law of the country, there will be run-off election between Dr. Abdullah and Dr. Ashrah Ghani. In the light of former schedule of the IEC, the date for second round of election is 28 of this month. Nonetheless, it has been delayed for 17 days. While announcing the final results, IEC chief, Yousaf Nuristani said election campaigns for the run-off election would commence on May 22 and would end on June 11. According to him, the second round has been re-scheduled for June 14 and its results will be declared on July 22.
Both the leading candidates have shown readiness for competing in the second round. The front-runner Dr. Abdullah Abdullah has been successful to gain the support of Zalmai Rasaul who is on third position with 11.4%. Moreover, Ashraf Ghani is far behind Abdullah as the contrast between their results is 13.4%. Although Ashraf Ghani seems to be more enthusiastic for competing in the second round, based on the current calculations, probability of Abdullah’s win remains quite high.
The second round of election has its own difficulties. The foremost one is insecurity. The Taliban have begun their spring offensive. They will definitely do their utmost to disrupt the election and will try to compensate their failure in creating any serious hurdle for the April presidential and provincial councils’ elections.
Secondly, this election is proving to be very costly for a poor country like Afghanistan that is highly relying on foreign aids. President Karzai’s replace had to be in office this month but as the election has gone into the second round, the new president might assume responsibilities in late July or may be in August. Afghanistan has been grabbed by grave uncertainty that has been growing since several months before the presidential election. Uncertainty is doing much to damage Afghanistan’s already-fragile economy. The run-off will further deteriorate the situation.
In 2009 presidential election Dr. Abdullah refused going into run-off election and Hamid Karzai became the president of Afghanistan albeit he had secured less than 50% of votes. Unless the same kind of scenario repeats the second round of current election must be held despite prevailing challenges.