The campaign period for election run-off is ending tomorrow and the two candidates Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Dr. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai would do their utmost to gain more public support during the last hours left. Although the country is experiencing an election run-off for the first time in its history, it is not difficult to estimate who will be the winner. Based on the current standing of the two runners, it is difficult to say who would be the winner on June 14 polls.
In 2009 presidential election Dr. Abdullah stood second but he refused going into the second round against Hamid Karzai who was the frontrunner. Subsequently, Mr. Karzai became the president of Afghanistan for a second term albeit he had secured less than 50% of votes. Had Ashraf Ghani withdrawn from the presidential race after he was defeated in the first round, much time and money of the people of Afghanistan would have been saved. Nonetheless, he chose to contest Abdullah in the second round based on the rights contained in the Afghan constitution and electoral law.
Since May 22nd – when election campaign period kicked off - Afghanistan has witnessed many political marriages and divorces. A total of eight candidates participated in the first round of election but none of them could secure more than 50% of votes and based on the constitution an election run-off must be conducted between two leading contenders. Since Abdullah and Ghani will be contesting for a second time, the other six candidates have also not remained impartial.
The supporters of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah claim that their leader would win in the second round because in the first round Abdullah secured 45% and Ashraf Ghani 31.6% of votes which indicates that Ashraf Ghani is far behind Abdullah as the contrast between their results is 13.4%.
They also claim that they are in better position because certain influential figures have already announced their support for Abdullah. For instances, Dr. Zalmai Rasoul and Abdul-rab Rasool Sayyaf who secured third and fourth positions in the first round of election, ex-intelligence chief and leader of Green Trend Amrullah Saleh, ex-governor of Nangahar Gul Aqa Sherzai, and among others President Karzai’s brother Jamil Karzai have joined Dr. Abdullah’s team ‘Reform and Integrity.’
Ashraf Ghani, who has been working with statistics throughout his career, has his own calculations and probability of winning. He and his supporters are confident that he will win and his campaign has been comprehensive as well. However it is difficult to say who will win in the second round of election.
Nonetheless, it should not go unsaid that the greatest merit of 2014 presidential election is not a candidate’s win or loss but it is the people’s victory over individuals who said democracy is not made for Afghanistan.