Regardless of the ongoing election crisis, one of the two presidential candidates— Dr. Abdullah or Dr. Ghani— will finally accede into power as Afghanistan’s second president after the Bonn agreement in 2001. Although both candidates are insiders to Afghanistan’s politics and public administration as former cabinet members, it will take a few initial months to adjust to the president’s office and the new job. The time is short though, the incumbent president has to face serious legacies and formidable challenges left behind by Hamid Karzai in the last 13 years of his rule.
There is hardly any chance for the new president to survive if he delays the fight against corruption. The so-called administrative corruption and mismanagement is no more a problem in Afghan public administration, but a deeply institutionalized culture and routine exercise that not only isolates the government in international level, but also diminishes the declining public support and funds the Taliban’s war agenda. The anti-corruption action will not succeed if the president fails to clarify his position towards the current senior government officials and new appointees.
Afghanistan’s security situation is worsening and fragile than anytime. At the moment, NATO and Afghan security forces are fighting the Taliban and foreign extremists in major provinces in the west and southern parts. Although the young Afghan army and police have demonstrated considerable courage and skill, their casualty is high. To continue the current war and defeat the enemies, the president will have to empower security forces with provision of heavy military equipment and morale support. The infiltration of Taliban members into military institutions manifested by the growing “insider attacks” has created a climate of mistrust between Afghan forces and NATO advisors and trainers. To restore and sustain this much- needed support, the new president and officials in the ministries of interior and defense will have to undertake serious technical background checking for the current uniformed soldiers and the new recruits. This task requires both technical expertise and long-term leadership, but is extremely important for building trust.
As President Karzai is leaving, Afghanistan needs serious and immediate revision of its foreign policy. Being a dependent-state on foreign financial and military aid, Afghanistan needs more friends abroad. Both NATO and Afghan forces are fighting a true cause and sacrifice every day. To ensure their victory, the country needs a robust and active foreign policy to attract investment, strategic cooperation and meaningful engagement. As clear, Karzai’s refusal to sign the Bilateral Strategic Agreement (BSA) with the United States has seriously undermined the mutual relationship not only with the USA, but also with NATO allies. Given the situation at home, there is no alternative for this agreement, thus it should be a top priority to the president to sign it. Finally, a permanent political stability in Afghanistan requires serious and genuine regional engagement, including strategic cooperation between Afghanistan and its neighbors, Pakistan and Iran.