By: Abdul Ahad Bahrami
Since the beginning of the Taliban spring offensive this year, security in the Northern provinces have been increasingly exacerbating. A number of lawmakers in the Mishrano Jirga expressed concerns over the worsening security situation in the north of the country. Some of the MPs warned that if the government does not act decisively over the increasing activities of the insurgent groups, a number of Northern provinces would be on the verge of collapse. The warnings are coming as the Taliban and other insurgent groups have started their spring offensive to further destabilize the country. In recent weeks, many provinces have been scenes of deadly militant attacks and heavy fighting between the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the insurgent groups.
What is worrying is the new approach of the Taliban and the insurgent groups in expanding their campaign of violence across the country targeting areas that enjoyed relative security in the past. In the past, Taliban used different war tactics to take grounds and inflict heavy casualties on Afghan army and police forces as well as attacking on high-profile government targets. The Taliban have constantly shifted their war tactics over years. One of the tactics the Taliban sought in the past was to strike on the most insecure districts in order to take grounds from Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). The heavy offensives by the Taliban in a number of districts in Helmand, Nangarhar, Kunduz, Ghazni and Badakhshan provinces have all been focused on taking ground from the ANSF.
Another war tactic constantly used by the Taliban was to launch spectacular attacks on high-profile government buildings, foreign embassies and NATO installations. Those were mostly aimed at spread the feeling of insecurity not only across the country but in major cities as well. This tactic was usually covered broadly by the media, which in turn, helped the Taliban to spread their propaganda of widespread bloodshed and insecurity. This year the Taliban and many other insurgent groups have taken different and far more dangerous approaches for making every inch and corner of the country insecure.
They have focused on expanding the war from the restive South and East to more secure provinces in the North. The militants have targeted those provinces in the North that have had security gaps. The recent killing of army soldiers in Badakhshan province showed how the Taliban are using security gaps that exist in more vulnerable provinces.
According to reports, hundreds of militants have sheltered on the Afghan side of the border with Turkmenistan, planning to open a new front in the long-lasting war. The Taliban have already intensified their activities in Balkh, Badakhshan and Kunduz provinces. Many MPs and security analysts have warned that if the government fails to beef up the Afghan army in the North, a number of the Northern provinces will further plunge into insecurity and violence.
In addition to expanding the war to the North, the Taliban and the so-called Daesh group have repeatedly carried out abductions of civilians and government officials. The kidnappings on highways is becoming a trend as the militants kidnap people not only on the insecure Kabul-Kandahar highway but also on other areas such as in northern and eastern provinces. This is well serving the militants’ evil intentions for spreading violence to each and every corner of the country, making the citizens feel insecure more than ever. The rise of the Islamic State group is another challenge that compounds the security problem both on the war fields and the highways across the country. The situation requires urgent and dedicated anti-insurgency plan from the National Unity Government.
As the ANSF has taken full responsibility of securing the country, the new wave of violence and the new insurgency tactics being used by the Taliban is going to be a major test for capability of the ANSF. With the ANSF fully in charge and the new threat of Islamic State group emerging as a new militant player in the country, this year’s fighting season is crucially important for sustainability of the ANSF in the post-NATO phase. The government needs to effectively counter the spring offensive through extensive anti-insurgency and defense plan. The Afghan security agencies need to counter insurgency plans to specifically target the insurgents’ new war tactics.
The upbeat side of the story is that despite taking complete security responsibility, the ANSF have been able to effectively provide security and push the Taliban back during last year presidential elections. The timely signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US by the National Unity Government (NUG) was the most promising step taken forward for continued robust support of the United States to the ANSF. The government must act quickly to determine the fate of the leadership of the defense ministry by appointing a defense minister as soon as possible. On other hand, with the NUG cabinet almost finalized, it is time for the unity government leaders to step up efforts for securing further support from the US and NATO including advanced weaponry.
On the ground, the ANSF need political support and a cohesive approach from the NUG leadership to launch large-scale offensive against the Taliban across the country. The leaders of the new government need to provide that support if it is supposed to lead a successful anti-insurgency war this year and in the coming years.