With widespread violence across the country going on, President Ashraf Ghani promised a tough response to the ‘imposed war’. Speaking at a joint press conference with his Croatian counterpart, Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic, he asserted that Afghanistan will not give up to the efforts for sacred peace. He added that the violence in the country is imposed by a number of certain elements including regional factors. President Ghani suggested that resolving the conflict requires not only domestic wise and coherent policies, but also external and regional solution to address what he called external elements of the Afghan conflict. The President’s comments is coming after months of efforts for resuming peace negotiations with the militant groups. However, the efforts for bringing the Taliban leaders to table of negotiations have not yielded any tangible results so far.
As the insurgency is wreaking havoc in many Northern provinces and elsewhere, hopes for beginning of peace negotiations with the Taliban are getting narrower. Despite his insistence on pursuing peace talks with the Taliban, President Ghani’s remarks clearly suggested his government’s little progress in the efforts for starting peace talks. Some months ago, the National Unity Government officials hoped the negotiations for peace would start soon. However, the talks did not begin, and the militant groups began their fierce and concerted spring offensive. Despite recent visits of Pakistani officials to Kabul, there are increasing doubts regarding concrete ongoing peace talk success.
With the stalemate going on, the government of Afghanistan is not expected to be able to kick-start peace negotiations with the militants in the near future. This also means that the security challenges that have engulfed the country this year are going to further compound. The concerted military offensive by the Taliban shows that the group is determined to take ground through violence and seek victory through prolonged warfare. The continuation of war further makes the peace efforts unsuccessful. Given this, the government of Afghanistan needs to plan for a prolonged conflict which may not be resolved for years. To win the war, the Afghan government should not derail the anti-insurgency campaign for hopes of resuming peace negotiations with the militants. Any hopes for a short-term peace deal with the Taliban are illusions that would not be helpful for anti-insurgency campaign.
On the other hand, government officials at local level have stated that the Taliban are teaming up with the newly emerging Islamic State group in some areas specifically in Kunduz province. The Islamic State group is believed to be already operating in some areas previously controlled by the Taliban. Previously it was thought that the Taliban were opposing Islamic State group and it was predicted the two groups would confront each other militarily. However, the worrisome reports of cooperation between the IS and the Taliban is suggesting that the issue might turn into a new nightmare for the Afghanistan.
If the Islamic State group joins forces with the Taliban, all past insurgency pattern would change. The Taliban used to observe some critical rules and were less brutal to the civilians compared to the newly emerging Islamic State group. In case of joining forces with the IS in Afghanistan, the Taliban may quickly evolve into a typical insurgent group like terrorist groups in African states and the Arab world who target military and non-combatants alike. In order to prevent the two groups from uniting, the government must launch robust military operations particularly in areas where the Islamic State group is believed to be active. On the other hand, to prevent such a scenario, the government needs to materialize the peace process as quickly as possible.
However, the hopes for bringing the Taliban to table of negotiations have been vanishing in recent months, and this is a very irritating sign for the fate of the Afghan peace process. Given the newly emerging security challenges, the failure to start peace talks with the Taliban would only exacerbate the multi-facet challenges. As President Ghani stated, the government needs to pursue a two-track strategy of war and peace against the insurgent groups. To handle the current chaotic security challenges, the government needs to have a clear definition of the enemy who should be fought militarily. Lack of a clear strategy and a clear government stance on militant groups would not be helpful for the ongoing war against the Taliban and the affiliated groups.