Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, November 16th, 2018

Conflict Recurrence: Strategies to prevent it

Afghanistan is one of the most conflict prone countries of the world. The sings of conflict recurrence are more evident than any other time since 2001 in the country. According to social scholars, the causes of social conflicts in the past can revive such conflicts again, if not addressed adequately by the governments. Weak representation of the major ethnic groups has been one of the key factors of the civil war in Afghanistan in 1990s. This issue has not been solved in the Afghan public administrations so far. As a result, it is widening the gap between the Afghan ethnic groups day by day and the Afghan ethnic groups believe they are being marginalized by the government systematically.
Therefore, it is ideal for the Afghan government to acknowledge to the issue that the ethnic gap is widening in the Afghan society. Because, admitting to a problem is the first step to address it properly. Further, it enables the government to generate knowledge of such risks for social trust building in a conflict ridden society. Also, it is essential to identify the mechanisms leading to the resumption of civil war, in order to prevent recurrence of conflicts, and to establish peace.
The Roles of Ethnic Leaders
It is crystal cut that ethnic leaders play a vital role in preventing or creating a conflict including the resumption of ethnic conflict in the country. Studies show that whether a political leader accepts the post-conflict situation or not is considered fundamental for establishing peace in a post-conflict society. The way the ethnic leaders judge the post conflict environment is vital for the future direction of the situation. Because the perception of the people depends on the way their leaders judge social phenomena.
Main factors of Conflict Resumption
Conflict duration, casualty, and type of conflict are the main factors related to a recurrence of conflict. On the other hand, research findings show that for each additional year that the previous war lasted, the possibility for the resumption of conflict increases by 1o percent.  Thus, higher casualty is one of the factors that hardens the hostility and distrust between the previous enemies and makes coexistence between the previous enemies difficult in a society. According to the Walter, the longer the civil war reduces the likelihood that a country would face another one.  In addition, social scholars hold that ethnically based conflicts are as likely to occur as ideological conflicts in the concerned society.
Factors like whether a conflict ends through negotiations or in a military victory plays a critical role in resuming a conflict as well. As the root cause of most conflicts is sharing power, the effect of granted power is very large on any conflict resolution or resumption.  Based on the research findings, without sufficient power sharing, the decade-risk is 46.2 per cent, while with sufficient power sharing, the risk decreases to 12.2 per cent.
Considering the conflict prone nature of Afghan society, the risk of conflicts resumption is very high. Recurrence of an ethnic conflict in Afghanistan means a total disaster; we already are trapped in fighting with about 20 terrorist groups, facing drought, high unemployment and week social trust. As the lessons of previous conflicts in Afghanistan show, no ethnic group can totally sideline other ethnic groups to rule on them. Therefore, the best policy to prevent any ethnic conflict in the country leading to another the civil war is sharing the power. Because, it can lead to social trust building, closing the ethnic gaps, and using the potentials of all ethnic groups to strengthen security and ensure a lasting peace in the country. Afghanistan needs a leadership to heal its wounds and it is the duty of any citizens of it to strive to realize this end and it is the duty of all Afghan leaders to make any measures to put an end to the sufferings of the nation.