The recent peace agreement between the US and Taliban has created immense waves of fears and hopes in Afghanistan. These fears and hopes are raised through a series of questions such as Will the US-Taliban deal led to a sustainable peace in the country?  Are we able to save the republic in Afghanistan?  Is the Taliban seeking peace or trying to re-establish the Islamic Emirate? Is the US, as a strategic partner of Afghanistan, concerned about the nature of the political system or just seeking its own interests? What will be the consequences if the 5000 Taliban are released from the prisons but the government is not reached an agreement with Taliban? Are the republicans of Afghanistan victim of a hidden political deal? And eventually, how it is possible to prevent from a probable civil war in the country? Given the nature of realistic politics and given the political experience in the country, neither the hopes are baseless and nor the concerns and questions. If the Afghan government and Afghan political community are succeeded to use the current opportunity, the entire political achievement may be annihilated with a strong retrogressive storm While If we can collectively stand against unacceptable demand of Taliban then it will be a historic opportunity for sustainable peace in the country.
However, there are many regional and international players which are expected to play constructive role in the country but politically it is not a rational expectation. According to the realistic theories in political science, each country has its own priorities which originate from their national interests. Therefore, it is not the mission of foreigners to make our national unity or save the republic system in Afghanistan. Last year, the president of the US, Donald Trump, made it clear that the type of political system or defense from democracy are not our tasks in Afghanistan.  On the other hand, the Trump’s personal interests also require accepting some risks in the peace process with the Taliban and Taliban supporters. The upcoming election campaign will require Trump to make at least one achievement before the US citizens go the ballot box. In addition, the Khalilzad’s personal preferences may also make him not to give importance about future of Afghanistan. However, there are some points that may not let them fully forget the republic system in Afghanistan. Firstly, the US civil society concerns about democratic achievements in Afghanistan. Secondly, the US concerns about re-empowerment of Taliban and their extremist nature which may pose a serious threat to the US security in the future. Therefore, the US may change its mind after the US election if the Taliban do not go ahead in a way that not threatened their interests.
In the other word, the US security officials are well aware that no change has occurred in ideology of Taliban and they have fundamental differences over the type of political system with Afghan government and Afghan political community. In regard to the type of political system, civil rights, women rights and so on they have the same dogmatic position as they had years before. Recently, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the head of Taliban’s Taliban office in Qatar, has made it very clear in his latest interview with PBS that there has been no change in the Taliban’s mentality since 2001.In the field of women’s rights, they accept only what Islam ( Talibanic interpretation of Islam) has recognized for women. Accordingly, the strategy and goal of Taliban is not to join the existing political system as a political-military group. Therefore, the Taliban hopes to revive the Islamic Emirate by stopping the US support from Afghan security forces.
Meanwhile, the Taliban supporters are also hopeful to regain the control and domination on Afghanistan through weakening the position of the Afghan government and through reestablishment of Islamic Emirate in the country. It seems that they will not only try to dominate on politics of Afghanistan but also on water, mineral resources and other issues. Based on this, the Taliban are going to take the power in the country but the factual decision makers will be outside the border of Afghanistan. Therefore, if they could not succeed to reach their goal through talks and deals they may use any options to propel the country into a civil war and destroy the entire achievement which has been hardly gained in last two decades in the country.
In regard to the regional powers, such as Russia, China, Iran and so on it may not be important for them which type of system is going to establish in Afghanistan but it is important to see the withdrawal of foreign forces from the region. Though the current US-Taliban deal may not fully ensure their interests but relatively they will reach their strategic goals. Therefore, it seems that they will support from the peace agreement which already signed between the US and Taliban. However, the position of India seems different comparing to other regional powers.
By and large, no regional or international power will guarantee the future of Afghanistan except the government and people of Afghanistan. Both the government officials and political elites should retreat from their personal and political interests. However, the Government has had a clear agenda and position about peace process but as the differences between the government and Taliban are so deep and fundamental they repeatedly ignored the government. The government has always emphasized on certain principles and stated that whenever the basic issues are solved with Taliban the sub-issues are easily will be resolved. The key principles which emphasized by the government but ignored by Taliban consist of the ownership of peace process, protection from the constitution and citizenship rights, protection from the republic and Islamic system, protection from the national army and so on.