The US and Taliban Peace Agreement was a Bad Deal. Trump’s administration compromised too much too please Pakistan and Taliban in order to win votes in the US presidential elections and pave the way for the US troop withdrawal. Assessments of Afghan and US intelligence and research institutions show that the deal had no positive outcomes. In turn, it emboldened Taliban and they increased their attacks on Afghanistan security checkpoints, government offices, target killings and murdering the civilians. As mentioned Taliban and Pakistan have been the main winners of the Agreement. Based on this, political analysts believe Pakistan supports a peace deal based on Doha Agreement to ensure the following achievements and goals:
First, to keep India sidelined from the peace process. India has been one of the key players in Afghanistan during the last two decades. It has spent a huge amount on building infrastructures of Afghanistan. However, the role of India in the US and Taliban talks was nearly zero. It is why just some days ago General Bipin Rawat India’s first Chief of Defense mentioned India was worried about its status in the Afghan peace talks. Rawat believes a lot of key changes were taking place in the South Asian region, which had both direct and indirect bearing on not only India’s national security but also strategic interests in the long run. While Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi says all stakeholders have been involved in the process, India thinks it has completely been isolated from the process. Qureshi adds Pakistan was worried about regional rivalry in Afghanistan. This indicates that the agreement is in the interest of Pakistan and against the interests of India. As a result, the Indian defense and security establishment is understandably worried how this will pan out. India, too, wants to sit at the high table in the Afghan peace process and not just watch from the sidelines. This is what worries Pakistan and makes it to push the peace process on the same path.
Second, Pakistan says it is worried the peace talks fail and Afghanistan return back to 90s and a new round of civil war grips the country while Afghans are worried that a bad deal will lead Afghanistan to 90s and fuel a new round of civil war.
Third, Pakistan claims it has suffered heavy casualties due to war in Afghanistan, so it supports peace and stability in the country. Pakistan also eyes regional economic corridor between China and Central Asia centered on Pakistan. However, Afghans and other politicians hold that Pakistan has invested on instability of Afghanistan to ensure its depth of strategic goal and prevent India’s influence on Afghanistan. As former president of Pakistan, Parwiz Musharaf had admitted in 2015 saying Pakistan had created Taliban to deter India.
Fourth, Qureshi in his interview with Anadolu Agency said that it was Afghans who decide about the type of political system they want and Pakistan only facilitates it. It is the world, regional countries and Afghanistan neighbors do not want Afghanistan to return back to 90s and the US, China, Russia and Pakistan clearly expressed their disagreement with the return of Emirate and Afghans are ready to choose their favorite political system through referendum or other rational means. However, If Pakistan is sincere in terms of facilitating Intra-Afghan Peace talks, why Taliban leaders and peace negotiators frequently meet the high ranking civil and military authorities of Pakistan? Why they cannot make any decisions without Pakistan’s consent?
Is the World Fed up with Pakistan’s Hypocrisy?
It seems there are some shifts from Pakistan to Turkey in terms of Afghan Peace talks. As Pakistan has always played dual role in Afghan peace processes and the outcomes have been totally negative for the Afghan and the world, it requires involving some other countries as game changers. Turkey is one of the countries which have had good relations in the course of history in Afghanistan. It also has played a very constructive role in Afghanistan during the last two decades along with the international community both in securing Afghanistan and contributing to its development.
Afghan peace talks have been stalled. The main reason behind peace talks stalemate is the US and Taliban bad Agreement. The United States compromised too much to Taliban in the absences of Afghanistan government. Pakistan as the main country involved in the process guided Taliban and provided them strategic advice through civil and military authorities on the US and Taliban talks. At the end, the deal was totally in the interest of Taliban and Pakistan costing nearly the democratic achievements of Afghanistan and sidelining Afghan government and some other key players including India. As any peace deal requires the involvement of all key players, this deal comes short of it. Therefore, it was expected the new US Administration to review it in a manner to address the strategic gaps of the deal, an issue that was finally not considered by Joe Biden’s Administration. Any deal based on Doha Agreement will be imperfect. As a result, the US, United Nations and international community should ensure involving all key players in the Intra-Afghan Peace talks in order to achieve a sustainable peace deal.