Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Saturday, July 6th, 2024

Concerns about Security & Economy

NATO is about one and half year away from complete withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan and what the post-2014 scenario is going to bring to this country remains the biggest question of time. Living inside Afghanistan makes you feel better than the growing ill impacts caused by political and economic uncertainty this country is facing.

There are so many questions circulating in the minds of Afghan people about their future. And those questions are serious. One the security forces decrease, fears of return of insurgents or even eruption of a bloody civil war is occupying more space in the minds and hearts of the people of Afghanistan.

Up to a great extent this fear is due to expanding length and breadth of violence in the country. The lingering war has – in the last ten years – cost precious lives of thousands of military personnel and civilians and it is still taking tolls.  Suicide attacks, targeted killings, unsafe highways, abductions that Afghans have to face on daily basis reduce their hope and add to their disappointments. As Afghanistan will move ahead, such acts of brutality are expected to further escalate which might put the little stability of Afghanistan at the verge of destruction.

On the economic side, negative impacts of reducing role of international community are becoming more evident with passage of each day. There is fear that thousands of Afghans who work with foreign NGOs, projects, companies and military would go jobless. Already, large number of Afghans is leaving their country each year to escape unemployment and insecurity.

Also, there are concerns that a state of recession may hit Afghanistan. Over the last year, Afghani (AFN) – the Afghan currency - has unexpectedly devalued against foreign currencies such as Dollar, Euro and Pound. Being highly dependent on imports – basic necessities to luxurious goods -, Afghanistan needs a stable currency and abundant reverse of foreign exchange. Nonetheless, in addition to decreasing value of AFN, the foreign exchange reserve is subject to decrease with the on-going withdrawal of US-led troops from Afghanistan. At the same time, real state price and price of other kinds of properties have started declining dramatically.

The capital flight, on the other hand, has been another major problem affecting the Afghan economy. People are afraid to block their capital in country where the future is completely vague. In 2011 and 2012 billions of dollars have been taken out of Afghanistan.

There has been a significant increase in Afghan investments (about 30%) over a period of one year in UAE and Afghans prefer investing their money in other countries with stable security. Meanwhile in Afghanistan – that is in dire need of foreign and domestic investments – investment is decreasing.