The US intelligence has drawn a bleak future of Afghanistan in its new estimate. Based on the National Intelligence Estimate, Afghanistan will fall into chaos whether the US keeps some number of its troops here after 2014 or it goes for zero option.

Gains that the US and its allies have made in the Afghanistan war in the past three years will be significantly rolled back by 2017, even if some U.S. troops remain, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing officials familiar with the intelligence report. The NIE also predicts that Afghanistan will quickly fall into chaos if Washington and Kabul fail to sign a security pact to keep an international military contingent there beyond 2014, the newspaper said. 

It is pertinent to say that the insurgents have been able to keep their influence in a major number of Afghanistan districts despite presence of tens of thousands of international troops and 350,000-strong Afghanistan National Security Force. It is not hard to imagine how the condition will be once the US-led troops are out of Afghanistan.

The ANSF despite having a notable growth still lacks the required level of professional skills and modern war equipment. At times when the withdrawal date of NATO troops is approaching fast, the Afghan air force still lacks the required number of aircrafts, helicopters and other such necessities.

If the Bilateral Security Pact is finalized, the US will maintain some of its troops in Afghanistan that will be tasked to support and train the ANSF. However, based on the NIE, Afghanistan will fall into chaos even if the US keeps some of its troops in Afghanistan. In other words it suggests that the US and its allies must keep a significant number of their troops in Afghanistan to maintain their gains here.

The fate of the BSA remains unknown as President Hamid Karzai has denied signing it until his conditions are met. Nearly 60% of the Afghan population has backed the troops’ deal, according to a recent poll. The quicker the BSA is finalized, the better it will be for planning properly about the political, security and economic challenges that Afghanistan is expected to face in the coming years. It is indeed the BSA based on which the US and its allies can continue providing military and non-military support to Afghanistan even in its harshest times. Failure in finalizing the BSA may lead Afghanistan to face all economic, security and political challenges on its own. And that would be difficult for Afghanistan where all gains and developments remain to be highly fragile.