The simple and straightforward formula to predict the future of Afghanistan is comparing the current situation when there are tens of thousands of international forces deployed in the country and the situation when they all will be withdrawn. The current scenario is unfortunately quite disappointing and concerning deeming the prevailing insecurity and political and economic uncertainty. The situation will definitely deteriorate when foreign troops are out.

What is evident is that this country is moving towards a bleak future with Taliban and other terror groups gaining more strength and the government following policies which stand in contradiction to the wants of the people of Afghanistan. It remains gravely unknown how the government will handle the challenges like the spring election, political transition and the post-2014 scenario. Definitely, miracles are not going to happen and it is the government that must act logically keeping in view the vitality of foreign military presence and the hostility of some of Afghanistan’s neighbors.

At times when brutal killings of civilians, workers of reconstruction projects, employees of government and media personnel are leaving undesirable impacts on the hearts and minds of the people, more lethal attacks are expected from Taliban in the coming days and weeks. Noting the latest deadly attack on a popular Lebanese restaurant in Kabul that claimed 21 lives, Mark Milley, Deputy Commanding General of the US forces in Afghanistan has predicted an increasing number of similar attacks. In a recent video press conference at the Pentagon, Lt. Gen. Milley has said that Afghanistan would likely witness further attacks in the coming days, targeting foreign troops, Afghan military, government officials and Afghan and foreign civilians. Such estimation is indeed not difficult to make for anyone who has a little knowhow about the prevailing situation in Afghanistan.

Terror attacks in the capital and other major cities of Afghanistan will engage the government so much that it would not have sufficient time to ponder over election security and plan for managing the security situation after withdrawal of US-led forces. Economic situation is another area that will remain out of focus of the government.

So, insurgents’ activities seem to be parallel to their objectives. They will definitely utilize all their resources to mold the situation in their benefit. At least for now, Afghan government’s soft-heart policy towards the Taliban that have caused releases of thousands of insurgents from prisons seems naïve and damaging to the country.