China must “fully liberalize” its birth-control policy to increase its labor force in the upcoming decades and compete with such countries as the US economically, a paper published by the People's Bank of China says.
Beijing should pay close attention to the fact that the country's birth rate is declining, while its population is aging fast, the researchers argued. The research, which was published this week by China's central bank as part of its working paper series, suggests that the country's main economic rival, the US, is undergoing "favorable changes" in working population rates, largely through mass immigration.
Based on statistics and forecasts by the United Nations – which might even overestimate China's reproduction rate, according to the researchers – the report suggests that in the next three decades, China's population will decrease by some 32 million people. At the same time, US may add 50 million people to its population by 2050.
Furthermore, the researchers warned that China's labor force is set to shrink, while the US will see an expansion. And unlike China, the US will have the benefit of “skilled immigration.”
While China had 70.6% of its population in the labor force as of 2019, compared with the US rate of 65.2%, that advantage is predicted to drop to 3.2 percentage points from 5.4 percentage points by 2035, the paper said. By 2050, the US will swing to a 1.3 percentage-point advantage over China in the labor-force rate, the authors predicted, adding:
China's population is projected to reach its peak in 2030, with 1.46 billion people, but will drop to 1.4 billion in 2050, the researchers said, adding that the proportion of elderly people will continue to grow. They also warned that another economic rival, India, will soon have more working hands, as it's predicted to surpass China and become the world's most populous country around 2027. (RT)