As the campaign for the second round of the presidential election kicked off on Thursday, both forerunner presidential candidates, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah who gained 45 percent of total casted votes and Dr. Ashraff Ghani Ahmadzai who gained 31 percent of votes have stood against each with new political arrangements. Zalmai Rasoul who was viewed as the favorite candidate of the Palace and a potential candidate to become the next president and finally only gained around 10 percent of votes joined hands with Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. Many were reasoning that he would become the next President because he was favorite candidate of President Karzai. During the campaign, there were reports about secret meetings in the palace and withdrawal of Qayom Karzai the elder brother of Mr. President strengthened the notion that he might finally bring his favorite candidate on the power.
Despite the continuous rejection of Mr. President that he would not allow his supporters to interfere in the electoral process and would not change the result of the election, analysts seriously doubted his true intention. They were bringing secret meetings under the leadership of Mr. Karzai as reasons behind his struggle to push the election to the path it designed previously. But against all such allegations and worries that were potential to drag the country into another round of mess and chaos, he stood neutral. At least he did not interfere to a level to change the destiny of the election. He did a great thing. The history will not forget his neutral stance on the 5th April presidential election.
Indeed, both national and international observers were worried about electoral fraud to extent of 2009 presidential election when Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and President Karzai were about to go for the second round because he did not gain 50+1. But Dr. Abdullah avoided going for the second round. While talking to a gathering of his supporters after the announcement of the result of Presidential election, he shed tears and said that since he did not believe about the transparency of the election, he wouldn’t go for the second round. His withdrawal paved way for the election commission to announce Mr. Hamid Karzai as the President without holding the second round of the election.
Similar worries were looking real in the recent Presidential election with difference that any such thing could have triggered a chain of political disturbance or a civil war. Firstly, though in 2009 presidential election the fraud was so widespread that changed the result of the election but NATO/ISAF had a major military presence. By their presence, it was really hard for any politicians to fuel instability because they would have responded with all force in order to prevent political.
But in the recent election, the security responsibilities were handed over to Afghan security forces who still are not fully nationalized. In other words, parts of the Afghan security forces are the collection of former soldiers of different communal leaders who were fighting against each other. Still it is feared that in the case of any domestic disturbance among different politicians, security forces do not become divided on the lines of ethnicity which would be tragic.
Thus, fear about disintegration of security forces on the line of ethnicity if controversy hit politicians as well as the set deadline for military withdrawal of foreign countries were factors that further put the situation in the veil of complexity. Lack of any indisputable figure who could appear as national figure was any an issue that determined that the presidential election would be so tough among many candidates. In the 2009 and 2004, from the very beginning many were of the view that President Karzai would be the ultimate winner because none of his rivals had the support of people as well as international community to an extent that he had. But making assumption about the recent election was difficult. Before the kickoff of the campaign and during it, there were huge discussions almost in all gatherings. Each person had his own analysis and understandings of the situation. The discussions mostly circulated around three potential candidates, Dr. Ashraff Ghani Ahamdzai, Zalmai Rasoul and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. But none could argue that one of them will get the highest percentage of votes considering their communal vote banks.
Such lack of potential candidate who had no rival made the election on one hand interesting and on the other hand ripe for controversy because if the election was not fair and transparent, each of them might not have set silently. Even before the election, there were murmurings about the distribution of weapons in different parts of the country as preparation for another communal war after the foreign military withdrawal or if the election was not transparent.
But thanks major of such worries proved illusionary. The election passed and it was transparent to an appropriate level. Mr. President as promised remained neutral and unlike his predecessors did not make any dangerous effort to remain in power. Similarly, the Afghan security forces developed and found the prestige of a national force instead of communal. These all factors sparked optimisms about the future despite serious economic problems and high employment rate which in turn change into destructive forces for political stability. Thus, there is much hope that second round of the election passes without major problem which would pave the way for peace and stability.