Only a day after the second round of presidential election, June 14, the tone of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the front runner in the first round of Presidential election changed. It remained vague for common people till days later in a press conference he suspended all his relation with Election Commissions—Independent Election Commission (IEC), Independent Election Complaint Commission (IECC). It was revealed that something was wrong and perhaps he limps far behind Dr. Ashraff Ghani Ahmadzai his only rival in the second round of election.
He put the reason as receiving deaf ears to his demands. The main thing he asked the election commission was the disqualification of Zia ul Haq Amerkhail, chief secretary of the election commission. On June 14, on the Election Day, his bodyguards were caught of transferring the voting cards. There are two contradictory reports. The first one, as the supporters of Dr. Abullah Abdullah claims, his bodyguards were carrying the huge number of voting cards to Surobi district where seemingly people largely support Dr. Ashraff Ghani Ahmadzai and also is restive where independent or candidates’ observers could not monitor the voting process. Therefore, when Kabul police chief caught him, both made tough argument. So, police caught him that he was transferring those cards in order to make fraud in the favor of Dr. Ashraff Ghani Ahmadzai.
The opposite allegation is that election commission previously put police on the picture about the transfer of the voting cards. But police avoided cooperating because they overloaded. So, in coordination with staff of election commission, the election materials were decided to be transferred to Surobi district. But those who were responsible were stopped by Kabul police and the commission sent Mr. Amerkhel to solve the problem. So, his arrival led to verbal clash with police which found way to media. Perhaps, the incident would have been ignored if the election result which has not been announced yet appeared to be different. Ostensibly, the naïve voting count completed a day after the Election Day in each polling station reflected that Dr. Abdullah limps far behind his rival. Thus, he blamed the election commission of involvement in a systematic fraud.
The suspicion originates from the level of turnout in eastern provinces. The eastern provinces are restive and Taliban exerts high influence there. During elections, the people’s turnout in these provinces was so low. Similar expectation was for the second round. Presidential elections travelled even to districts for campaign but none dared to go in those restive provinces to win the hearts and minds of people. Because they could have been targeted by Taliban militants vowed to disrupt the election at all costs. The disinterest of people to participate due to strong tribal fabric as well as the high level of exposure to risk kept the level of people’s participation so low. Thus, based on experience and lack of security, it was expected that people again do not participate in the election and hence votes coming from the eastern would not be decisive.
In opposite to previous calculation, the casted votes in the provinces are staggering and even far larger than the most peaceful provinces. Hundreds of thousands of votes casted completely changed the previous calculations and set Dr. Ashraff Ghani at the forefront.
The supporters and leaders of reforms and collaboration team claims that systematic electoral riggings occurred in those provinces. In another word, they say with presence of Taliban how people dared to take part in the election? Moreover, many claim that number of casted votes is far larger than the total of number of qualified individuals to vote. Hence, some systematic frauds must have happened, perhaps more than a million must be fake votes. As supporters of Dr. Abdullah say that only five million people participated in the election while Independent Election Commission estimates that more than seven million took part.
Anyhow, first of there is no statistics about the population of each provinces. Indeed, it is really hard to announce an exact figure about the population of a particular province. All existing figures are based on mere estimation and guess which also differs remarkably with one another. For example, the population of Kabul city is estimated between three million to six or seven million people. Same is the case with other provinces, including the eastern provinces. Thus, those who claim that casted votes are far larger than the population of the province cannot prove it since there is not statistics about the population of even peaceful provinces.
Likewise, though Taliban vowed to disrupt the electoral process but residents of some provinces alleged that Taliban militants even encouraged people to take part in the second round. However, it needs to be authenticated but the claim does not look weird. Despite severe differences between Pashtun community but they proved to stand beside each other if they feared to lose power to a non-Pashtun community. Since Dr. Abdullah sparked fear in the hearts of the community members in the first round as his votes were so high, alone larger than the accumulation of Dr. AshraffGhani and ZalmaiRasoul, the second and third Presidential runners.
Moreover, Dr. Abdullah was a close friend and colleague of Ahmad Shah Masoud who fought against Taliban for years. So, his policy is far clear against Taliban militants. He will stand with clenched fist against Taliban.
Therefore, it is possible that the above two reasons made people to have high turnout in the eastern provinces. However, the election commission has announced the partial result and complaints have not been met yet.