Despite warnings of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Election Commission announced the primary result of runoff Presidential election which has thrust the political situation deep into quagmire of confusion. Dr. Abdullah previously clearly mentioned that announcement of preliminary result of the election was redline for him for resuming cooperation with Election Commissions. While on the other hand, Dr. Ashraff Ghani questioned the delay of the announcement and emphasized that the Commission should not keep people waiting and soon announce the result in order to get the people out of the confusion.
The announcement of the result meant the cross of redline of Dr. Abdullah. If he stands on commitment, he would not cooperate with election commission and announce himself as the winner of the election. On Tuesday, his supporters tore apart the picture of Mr. President Karzai from the Loya Jirga in Kabul and hanged a picture of Dr. Abdullah instead which also sparked criticisms in social media. Some wrote on timeline that action actually was a kind of violation of Presidency dignity or insult to Afghan government while others declined the action as mere emotional reaction of people.
His supporters asked him to establish a parallel government which if he did could have ruined the entire achievements made with the cost of billions of dollars and sacrifice of tens of thousands of lives. Since the announcement of the result of preliminary election on late Monday, there are talks about parallel government. Atta Mohammmad Noor, the governor of Balkh province talked about parallel government. Similar dangerous statements are made by others.
Indisputably, the April 5th presidential election had some essential differences with two other elections. In both 2004 and 2009 elections, President Hamid Karzai was deemed as invincible runner of the elections. In both elections, the number of candidates was so large that anybody who the financial supporter registered their names while understanding that had no chance to win the election. They came forward only to popularity and assumed strengthening of communal status through the election.
In other words, in 2005 Presidential election, wining was not the main objective of the candidate but the percentage of votes gained by each candidate who represented a particular community was informal population of the community. Though no one can depend on such percentage because the fraud was so high and voting boxes were filled by government. Anyhow, in both election people believed that Mr. President Hamid Karzai would finally become the president whether through fraud of pure votes of civilians because the international community had other option other than him to work with. Thus, the international community, particularly, the Washington officials are in consensus to keep him as President.
But 5th April President Election this year did have any of the characteristics. The relation between Kabul and Washington hit to all time low. Mr. President Karzai instead of developing a better relation with the US for whose sake he came to power, he resumed inflexible stance almost on any issue.
That environment increasingly strengthened the notion that White House has decided to distance itself from President Karzai and instead work on an alternative who holds a much appropriate view toward Washington.
Additionally, as per constitution President Karzai was banned to run the election. so unlike previous two elections, the suspect that government might get engaged in a systematic electoral fraud in the favor of this or that candidate. However, time and again murmuring popped among people that who finally Mr. President would pick up from among candidates. In the first round, despite claims of riggings, the international community as well as domestic institutions all together expressed their satisfaction over level of transparency observed. However, in the first round Dr. Abdullah claimed that he won 50+1 percent of total votes which would have made qualified to replace president Karzai. But ultimately when the election commissions announced that he got only around 45 percent of votes, he accepted.
Considering the percentage of votes he gained and also alliances he made with other presidential candidates strengthened the concept that he would be the ultimate winner. But some deep communal differences were ignored irrespective of level of frauds. Part of his alliances gained him nothing but distance from other communities. No doubt, the votes he gained from eastern provinces were ignorable even at the first round. Major parts of his votes come from Hazarajat, assumed caste over 27 percent of total casted votes that also due to Haji Mohammad Mohaqeq, one of the most influential figures among Hazara community. But his efforts to get larger votes from different community proved against his him and this phenomenon once again proved the tight tribal culture.
As a friend from Wardak province told that the level of participation of people in the second was not comparable to the first round. He claimed that at 10:00 AM even Taliban militants announced through loudspeaker to vote the claim which does not look so unexpected. Dr. Abdullah was a close colleague of Ahmad Shah Masoud, a potential opposition force to Taliban militants. For years he fought against Taliban and also popular for severe remarks against Taliban during past years.
Thus, it is highly possible that Taliban feared if he wins the election and become the next president, he might behave them as President Karzai did. He might call them as dissent brothers rather with the support of international community would launch tough battle against them in the eastern parts of the country. Same is not true for Dr. Ashraffi Ghani however he has open of criticizing Taliban. Perhaps, the communal bondage outweighs other relations. As Taliban militants never behaved warlords of Pashtun ethnicity as the warlords of the other communities.