In recent days, the Afghan army and police forces have launched a new round of counter-insurgency operation in Kunduz province to drive the militants out of the areas they have taken in more than past two weeks. As fierce fighting is going, dozens of Taliban and a number of army casualties are reported. According to local officials, more than 14,000 families have been displaced as result of the ongoing battle in the province. The ongoing counter-insurgency in Kunduz province has developed as a full-scale war between the Taliban militants and the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) for control of the Kunduz and surrounding provinces. The Taliban focus this year in the Northern provinces is largely a different war strategy sought by the Taliban compared to the previous offensives of the militants.

The militants’ resistance against Afghan army and police forces has been formidable. Since a year ago, the Taliban started bolstering their presence in many districts of Kunduz province including Dasht-i-Archi, Chahar Darreh, Khanabad and Imam Sahib. Since then, as the reports suggest, thousands of militant fighters have infiltrated to the far remote and isolated areas of the province where they enjoy relatively large support from local residents. The Taliban fighters fighting on the ground in the province are so resistant that it has made it very difficult for the ANSF to retake the grounds taken by the Taliban. Despite taking many villages from the Taliban in Kunduz, the militants still have dominant presence not only in many districts of the province but also in surrounding areas of the Kunduz city.

The Taliban offensive in many Northern provinces is in fact a new war strategy by the Taliban focusing on shift of war ground from south the north. There have been many reasons for the Taliban to expand the war into the Northern provinces. First, the government had relatively weak military presence and security coverage in the Northern parts of the country. For most of the past fourteen years of the anti-insurgency, the southern and eastern provinces have been the battlefield of war between the militant groups in and the US-led NATO forces along with the ANSF. As result of this, all military focus has been on the most volatile provinces in the south and east, which had left the north particularly vulnerable. As a group that has fought for the last fourteen years, the Taliban are not inept in taking advantage of the Afghan government’s security vulnerabilities. As the ANSF have been mostly busy with securing the last year elections, the militant groups identified security gaps across the country and prepared for taking advantage of it.

However, one of the main reasons of the Taliban’s unprecedented war focus on Northern provinces is the proximity of the area to Central Asian States. According to the reports, many foreign fighters, including women, have been killed in recent days of the ANSF offensive in Kunduz province. Local officials have said that foreign militants including Chechens and Uzbeks have been fighting along with the Taliban militants. It seems that the Taliban have teamed up their forces in Northern provinces with foreign nationals mostly from the Caucasus and the Central Asia. Previously it was claimed that hundreds of militants had sheltered on the Afghan side of the border with Turkmenistan, planning to open a new front in the long-lasting war.

Many of the foreign militants fighting alongside the Taliban aim to establish a safe haven in the northern Afghanistan so to promote their insurgency in their home countries. It is feared that if the issue is not dealt seriously, some most insecure areas of the North could turn into a back door hub for terrorists of Central Asian States origin. With the escalation of the militants’ activities in the northern Kunduz provinces, many MPs and security analysts warned that if the government fails to beef up the Afghan army in the North, a number of the Northern provinces will further plunge into insecurity and violence. In recent months, Russian and Central Asian States officials have warned of the Northern Afghanistan becoming more insecure and threatening the Central Asia. If it is the scenario of Taliban teaming up with foreign militants, the militant groups would certainly further focus on finding a foothold in northern Afghanistan so as to create a new safe haven for foreign militants such as North Waziristan.

However, there are also other possible scenarios for the militant groups targeting the Northern provinces this year. The war waged in the north may be a diversion strategy by the militants so to drag the ANSF resources to the North and then open a new front which they aim in the south or east of the country. For most part of the last fourteen years of war, the Taliban have been fighting the war in the south and east of the country mostly with limited or no gains for the group. Expansion of the war into the Northern provinces and opening a new front for the ANSF could provide the group the opportunity to quickly start the already-fought war in the southern provinces such as the restive Helmand province. In provinces like Helmand, the Taliban enjoy relatively more support from the locals and easily spread the war while remaining engaged in the North.

The Taliban have had considerable gain through expanding the war in vulnerable provinces of the North. It is a key test for the ANSF to effective counter the obvious new war strategy by the Taliban. There is a chance for the Taliban to join forces with other minor terrorist groups including the Uzbeks, Chechens and the growing Islamic State group to bolster their presence against the ANSF as it is the common enemy for all the militant groups. Recently the Afghan President’s National Security Advisor, Hanif Atmar, warned that the Islamic State group has particular interest for taking ground in Afghanistan. Given the military offensive in Pakistan and the recent geostrategic changes in the region and beyond, it is quite probable for various militant groups to struggle for finding a safe haven in Northern Afghanistan.