In a major development for the peace efforts in Afghanistan, Afghan government delegation met Taliban representatives in Murree, a tourist resort near Islamabad. The talks are the first formal talks between the militant group and the Afghan government to end the long-lasting conflict in the country. According to Pakistani officials, participants of the talks agreed to continue negotiations with the aim to achieve peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. It is not yet fully clear if the ongoing talks are endorsed by the group’s Qatar office; however, Pakistani officials have said the “participants of the talks had agreement of their leaders”. Releasing a statement, Afghan ministry of foreign affairs has welcomed the talks, wishing the negotiations would begin a trend to prevent bloodshed in the country and pave the way for a peace settlement.

The talks are viewed as a milestone in the peace process, given the high-profile delegation comprised of Hikmat Khalil Karzai, Deputy Foreign Minister, and Haji Din Mohammad, a member of the High Peace Council. Since last year, Afghan politicians and HPC members had several informal peace discussions with members of the Taliban Qatar office in Norway, UAE and Qatar with no concrete progress for starting a formation peace talks. The peace talks in Pakistan are the first direct peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. The formal peace talks is coming while Taliban spring offensive is at full swing and the militants waging a deadly offensive in many provinces across the country.

There have been much hopes pinned to the improvements of relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan for starting the long-awaited peace talks with the Taliban. However, despite a rapid improvement of Afghanistan-Pakistan ties and the hopes for a Pakistani role in peace negotiations, there has been no concrete progress in bringing the Taliban leaders on table of peace negotiations. The Taliban have been waging a deadly spring offensive in recent months. With the fresh momentum of the insurgency, all the efforts and preparations for a potential peace talks have been derailed with both the militant groups and the Afghan government trumpeting for war. In initial talks between Taliban envoys and Afghan delegates with different political backgrounds, both sides stressed the need for starting negotiations aimed at striking a peace deal that could end the conflict in the country. However, both sides failed to agree on potential compromises from the government and the militant groups to allow a fully-blown peace talks in Afghanistan.

In previous talks, the militants set a number of preconditions for starting peace negotiations with the Afghan government, notably stressing on immediate withdrawal of all foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan and amending the Afghan constitution. For the Afghan government these are the red lines which it is not prepared to cross at any cost. The new Afghan national unity government has made it clear that it is not going to compromise on the Afghan constitution and women’s and human rights values. On the other hand, the government of Afghanistan has improved its security partnership with the West. Despite the preconditions set by the Taliban, there are hopes the group would still come to peace negotiations given a number of variables such as pressures from Pakistan, new conditions on the ground, and the Taliban’s internal shift towards entering peace talks with the United States. This suggests that any peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban would be unimaginably difficult given the thorniest issues related to the war and the Afghan constitution.

The cautious hopes for the Taliban’s coming to peace negotiations are also based on justified grounds. The group has shown much resilience towards some issues which were considered as the extremists’ red lines when they governed Afghanistan over a half decade ago. The Taliban have suggested that they will be prepared to make compromises on women’s rights and education for girls. The Taliban have come a long way in reaching this point. This is viewed as a remarkable shift of the militants’ approach towards the women. Taliban delegates sat face to face with a number of Afghan women lawmakers and activists in Norway this year attempting to assure the women of the group’s policies regarding women’s rights. The Taliban have also made it clear that they would no longer be a threat to other countries notably the world powers that toppled the group from power in 2001. This is viewed as a pragmatic approach from the Taliban to the outside world involved in the Afghan conflict.

The fact is that there have been many factors forcing the Taliban to respond to the calls for peace talks. The group’s weariness of war and continued robust security partnership between Afghanistan and NATO member states convince the Taliban that there would not chance of an outright military win for the group in post-NATO Afghanistan. Emergence of new militant players such as the Islamic State group and increasing decentralization of the Taliban has come as an alarm to the Taliban leadership for the future of the Taliban insurgency. Pakistan’s shifting approach towards militancy, the Afghan Taliban and the government of Afghanistan is another factor that puts the Taliban in a difficult and even inevitable position for starting negotiations with the government of Afghanistan.

There are hopes as well as uncertainties regarding peace efforts in Afghanistan. Though providing an opportunity for forcing the Taliban into negotiations, emergence of new players such as the Islamic State militants Taliban members shifting allegiance further complicates prospects of the ongoing war and a peace deal with the Taliban. On the other hand, lack of a concrete action from Pakistan to bring the Taliban leaders to table of peace negotiations with the former Afghan government has tempered the initial hopes for a positive Pakistani role in the peace efforts. 

The Two-day talks in Pakistan could be a genuine starting point in the road to a concrete peace deal with the Taliban. The opportunities currently available for starting peace talks may not permanently exist. The Afghan and Pakistani government need to work together to reach a common ground and a clear definition of a possible peace deal with the Taliban. Lack of actions from Kabul and Islamabad may mean forfeiting valuable opportunities that may not be existing at another time. Therefore, both the governments in Kabul and Islamabad needs to work hard to unite all major political forces in favor of resolving the long-lasting Afghan conflict and bringing peace and stability in both countries.