The role of the Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar in Taliban leadership and the ongoing peace process has always been ambiguous. The Taliban leader, whose leadership was surrounded with lots of secrecy when ruling Afghanistan, has become even more mysterious in leading the insurgency after the Taliban was overthrown from power in 2001. With the start of formal peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban and with the leaked information on rifts in Taliban senior ranks, there are increasing doubts whether Mullah Omar really controls the Taliban?

Recently, a number of local media outlets in Afghanistan quoted spokesman of a Taliban splinter group that Taliban supreme leader Mullah Muhammad Omar was killed two years ago by two senior members of the group. According to Qari Hamza, a spokesman of Fidayi Mahaz Movement, Mullah Omar was killed by Taliban senior members Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor and Gull Agha. However, the reports are yet to be independently verified. Corroborating the report on Omar’s death, Pakistani media reported on Monday that there are potential power struggle going on among the Taliban ranks centered on Mullah Omar’s eldest son Mullah Mohammad Yaqub.

It is not the first time that divisions among the Taliban are made public. Afghanistan’s intelligence agency, the NDS, had said last year that the Taliban leader may not be alive and that there may be major divisions among the Taliban leadership. At a crucial time for both the Taliban and the government of Afghanistan, a possible death of the Taliban leader would mean much more than a simple passing away of an insurgent leader. At a time when the Taliban are entering peace talks with the government of Afghanistan while facing an emerging threat from the Islamic State group, Omar’s death could turn both the Taliban leadership and the Afghan government’s peace efforts upside down. If confirmed, Omar’s death could have severe repercussions for the Taliban leadership.  The impact of Omar’s death is clearly foreseeable on the Taliban leadership and cohesion of the powerful insurgent group in Afghanistan while it is more difficult to predict its effects on the Afghan government’s war and peace efforts. If Mullah Omar’s death becomes public knowledge for the Taliban leadership and ground fighters and commanders, it could potentially trigger a fierce power struggle which would define the future of the insurgent group. There are reports that a number of Taliban senior figures are pushing for Omar’s son Mullah Yaqub’s replacement to Mullah Omar to lead the Taliban. According to the claims, Taliban senior members around Mullah Yaqub are opposed to the de facto leader of the Taliban, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor, who is officially deputy leader of the Taliban. The claims corroborate earlier reports about the death of Mullah Omar by two senior members of the Taliban leadership.  It is believed that Mullah Omar’s life and death is also mysterious to most of the Taliban senior leaders and the group’s ground commanders. According to Taliban senior members, in recent years senior members and commanders of the Taliban have been increasingly frustrated over the secrecy surrounded the leadership of the Taliban as they have been unable to meet Mullah Omar. Many believe that Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor has been the one preventing Taliban commanders and leaders to meet Mullah Mohammad Omar. A recent letter from Taliban to the Islamic State leadership in Syria/Iraq was signed by Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor which also suggests possible absence of Mullah Omar in the Taliban leadership. Though the Eid message ended the speculations whether the Muree talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban has been endorsed by Mullah Omar or not, however new speculations are rising whether the message was released by Mullah Omar or his deputy Mullah Mansoor. In the recent reports by Pakistani media it is alleged that the recent Eid message endorsing peace talks with the government of Afghanistan has also been released by Mullah Mansoor.

According to analysts and intelligence that exist, there are bitter rivalry among key Taliban leaders including Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor on one side, and Mullah Yaqub and Taliban senior commander Abdul Qayum Zakir on the other side. Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor is leading pro-talks camp of the Taliban who are willing to enter peace talks with the government of Afghanistan while the other camp of the Taliban leaders are opposing arbitrary decision-making of Mansoor and his growing influence in the Taliban leadership. Despite that alleged decision-making of Mansoor regarding peace talks with the Afghan government, the other camp’s opposition to Mansoor is not yet meant opposing peace talks with Kabul.

If Omar’s death is confirmed for Taliban senior members, it could potentially lead to a breakup of the Taliban, or at least an open rivalry between the Taliban senior members over the leadership of the group. Such a development in Taliban’s leadership could potentially derail the peace talks with the Afghan government. However, in that case one of the major camps of the Taliban will enter talks with the Afghan government which probably will not be much preferred for the government of Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan is attempting to reach a comprehensive peace deal with the Taliban that could end the long-lasting conflict in the country. In case of any fragmentation in the ranks of the Taliban, the Afghan government’s objective of a comprehensive peace deal would be jeopardized.

However, regarding the government’s war efforts, the case could be different. One of the major objectives of the United States and somehow former governments of Afghanistan from peace talks in part was to help fragmentation of the Taliban. While a possible death of Mullah Omar and a split of the Taliban group would not mean good for the Afghan peace efforts, in contrast it would not necessarily mean bad for the Afghan government’s anti-insurgency campaign. A possible death or assassination of Mullah Omar could mean fragmented and weakened Taliban insurgency fighting against the government of Afghanistan. The Taliban insurgency without the much-charismatic Mullah Omar, who has been the ultimate unifying figure in the Taliban leadership, would be easier for the government to overcome.