The Taliban are wrestling with formidable challenges and the rift emerging over the election of Mullah Omar’s successor is highly serious. A number of Taliban’s top leaders plus Mutasim Agha Jan, the former finance minister and a close confidant of Mullah Omar, and council members are against the decision to name Mansoor as supreme leader. Similarly, the family of deceased Taliban leader Mullah Omar, including his son Mullah Yaqub, has refused to pledge allegiance to his successor, calling on religious scholars to settle a deepening rift within insurgent ranks over the power transition. Moreover, reports say that the head of Taliban’s political office in Qatar, Sayed Tayyeb Agha, resigned on Monday over the appointment of the militant organization’s new chief Mullah Akhtar Mansoor.
“I have decided to step down as head of the political office of the Islamic Emirate, because my political role has come to an end. I will not be part of any decision and statements of the Islamic Emirate Taliban,” Tayyeb Agha is cited as saying.
He also regretted the leadership’s decision to keep news of Mullah Omar’s death a secret. He said he had insisted at times to receive “verbal instructions from Mullah Omar” but rejecting his requests, the leaders would say there was no need for them.
Pakistani news say that the outlawed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has also joined the dissident Taliban in rejecting Mullah Mansoor’s election with a commander saying they were not consulted on the matter.
But Mullah Mansoor has said that he has been elected by the leadership council and Islamic scholars, denying the impression that he was imposed on the movement. “The leadership is not a privilege but a sensitive responsibility. I would consult the Shura members and everyone as decisions will not be taken by an individual,” he told a gathering which had elected him.
The year 2014 was the deadliest insofar as attacks on Afghan and coalition forces were concerned. This was ominous as the coalition forces had thinned out and were on their way to exiting the country. But now comes a bombshell for the Afghan Taliban. Their supremo has been dead for two years. The movement would now be waging a struggle for the first time without a leader who all paid allegiance to and who defied the West and indeed the world, engaging a superpower in the longest war in its history by relying on rifles, improvised explosive devices, rockets and on radicals ready to be killed for a cause which they believed was just.
Anyhow, Agha’s resignation could complicate the fragile peace process further. Afghan government, which went from pillar to post to bring the Taliban on the table of negotiation, will encounter a standstill with his resignation. Agha believed that he would represent Mullah Omar’s will as being directed by the Taliban’s officials who kept Omar’s death secret – but it was proved wrong for him too late.
Former ambassador to Afghanistan Rustam Shah Mohmand is also downbeat about the possibility of a peace deal in Afghanistan following the disclosure of Mullah Omar’s death. “The Murree process is dead now. In fact, it was a non-starter,” he said.
Furthermore, Mullah Omar’s successor gave mixed signals on the peace process in his first audio message. Mullah Mansoor called peace talks the enemy’s propaganda. In other words, Mansoor’s appointment as Taliban’s supremo will open a new chapter in the peace talk and the progress made in the past will turn to zero. Hence, it will take much time to coax Mansoor into coming on the table of negotiation.
What if the Taliban be divided into two groups with their own leaders? This will also deteriorate the security situation in Afghanistan. In such a case, the scenario is clear. Why Molavi Abdul Raqib, a former Taliban refugee’s minister and one of the members of Dubai peace negotiation session led by Mutasim Aqa jan, was shot dead in the Pakistani city of Peshawar during the Karzai’s government? Why Molavi Noorullah Hotak, a Taliban’s senior leader, was killed? All know that because they were engaged in negotiation with the Afghan government despite the Taliban’s unanimous consent. Hence, starting peace parley with one group of the Taliban will never produce the desired result.
The interminable peace process met failure repeatedly for one reason or another. Since it has been proved fruitless and the casualties continued unabated in the country, I have never been optimist about the result and persist in its futility once more.
Sources say that the Afghan Taliban are divided over Mullah Mansoor’s ascendency is one reason among many others which could delay the peace process. It is believed that certain Taliban leaders are opposing Mullah Mansoor’s election since he is seen to be close to Pakistan’s security establishment.
I believe that as Karzai’s tolerance failed to persuade the Taliban to cease war in Afghanistan through negotiation, nothing would coax them to do so. After five commanders of the Taliban, including Mulavi Raqib, were shot dead by unknown gunmen in Pakistan within three months during Karzai’s government for being engaged in peace talk in Dubai, President Karzai invited Raqib’s party Tahreek-e-Islami Taliban to return to Afghanistan and urged other Taliban negotiators to go to safe places. To put it short, neither Karzai’s struggle nor the US-led NATO counterterrorism strategy bore the desired fruit in Afghanistan and the only way remains is a strict and honest military deal.