Currently Afghanistan is going through a very crucial phase of its history. This phase is going to decide the future for the people of Afghanistan. Whether they will have a peaceful and tranquil life or otherwise, largely depends on how the situation is handled today.
In recent months Afghanistan has seen deterioration in the security situation to a large extent. Taliban have been able to establish their dominance in few of Afghan provinces; and in certain northern districts, for the first time, they have been able to show their astonishing strength. The fall of Kunduz to Taliban was another major example showing how they have reorganized and prepared themselves to carry out complex attacks. The attack also raised concerns about the capability of Afghan government and security forces to ensure security of the people.
As the concerns are mounting regarding the future of peace and tranquility in the country, US President Barrack Obama has announced that US may delay the drawdown of its troops. He announced that the current posture of troops – 9,800 – will stay in the country through the end of 2016. He also announced that a total of 5,500 soldiers will stay in Afghanistan after 2016, when he leaves office.
It seems that US is really concerned about the situation in Afghanistan and it shows that it is interested in monitoring the situation closely. However, the important thing is to pursue a peace process that may guarantee a lasting peace in the country. US has been supporting such a peace process but that has not been successful yet.
Obama while announcing the change in the plan of troops drawdown said, “By now it should be clear to Taliban and all who oppose Afghanistan’s progress the only real way to achieve the full draw down of US and foreign troops from Afghanistan is through a lasting political settlement with the Afghan government.” Nevertheless, such a settlement is nowhere to be found. Since the peace talks hosted by Pakistan in Murree, there has not been any sort of development. Conversely, there have been increased doubts and uncertainties as the trust and cooperation between the National Unity Government (NUG) and Islamabad has reached to zero, or even below zero, as they are in the process of blaming each other for the deadlock in the peace talks.
Pakistani government has yet again announced its support for peace talks with Taliban, but there are doubts among the Afghan officials regarding its intentions. The cooperation between both the governments regarding the process has never been long lasting. There have been many episodes in the drama of the peace process but it has never been concluded.
It is important that US along with the regional powers must monitor the peace talks and ensure that they do it for the better future of the people of Afghanistan, not for their own political and strategic interests. With the support and involvement of US and the countries like Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey and India, a lasting peace can be developed in Afghanistan.
Within a few days to come, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is going to have a visit to US, where it is believed that the issue of the peace process with Taliban will also be discussed. Obama had said in a statement, “Next week I will host Prime Minister Sharif of Pakistan and I will continue to urge all parties in the region to press the Taliban to return to peace talks and to do their part in pursue to the peace that Afghans deserve.” However, it is also important that there must be practical steps to ensure progress in the peace process; otherwise, verbal insistence has always been made in this regard.
For Afghanistan to enter the peace talks (if they initiate) from a position of strength, it is necessary that Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) must be further strengthened. It is a good sign that US forces will remain in the country for a couple of more years, but important point is to make use of this presence to a maximum extent. NATO has also welcomed Obama’s decision and it may also keep its forces in the country for some more years. There are expectations that NATO will make such an announcement in its December session. Therefore, there should be practical efforts to ensure that this presence benefit ANSF as much as possible.
Following Obama’s decision regarding its troops, Germany has also given willingness to keep its troops in Afghanistan. The German Chancellor Angela Merkel strongly welcomed President Obama’s plans to prolong the troops’ engagement in Afghanistan. Her spokesman Steffan Seibert told a news conference on Friday, “She (Angela Merkel) strongly welcomes yesterday’s announcement from President Obama on the future U.S. engagement in Afghanistan… This announcement is an important signal to the international community; it is an important signal to the alliance partners of the United States but above all an important signal to the Afghan people.”
However, Germany has not yet given a deadline that may mark its troops’ drawdown. The German soldiers account for less than 7 percent of current NATO forces in Afghanistan, which total 13,000, and their role is totally to support Afghan security forces.
The role and support of international community in Afghanistan are of immense importance. As the security challenges are rising with the attacks of Taliban and rise of Islamic State (IS) militants, the security measures and apparatus in the country will be highly tested; and they can only be successful when the unconditional support continues for them. The only condition that can be set is the restoration of peace and tranquility; before that, drawdown of the troops may mean isolation of Afghanistan in the quagmire of instability and terrorism.