The militants organized another audacious attack targeting a Spanish guesthouse in diplomatic district of Kabul which left at least 8 people dead. The assault followed another deadly attack by the militants group at Kandahar international airport which left more than 50 people dead. The recent attacks by the militants came at a time of fresh hopes for resumption of peace talks between the insurgent groups and the Afghan government. The recent surge of violence at a time of increased diplomatic efforts to get the peace process started is highly likely to be relevant with the likelihood of resumption of peace process. On the other hand, it is aimed to impact both the resumption and the outcome of the peace process. Coming back from his Islamabad trip, President Ashraf Ghani said that peace talks could start in few weeks. During Ghani’s visit to Islamabad, Pakistani officials also reaffirmed their supportive role in the peace talks in Afghanistan.

Despite that many of previous attempts for kick-starting the peace process have failed at the end, the latest agreement between Afghan and Pakistani officials to resume peace talks with the Taliban seemed to be different from the previous endeavors. Many differences between Kabul and Islamabad over the initiative may remain in place, but the agreement to explore resumption of peace negotiations is a major step forward. The two sides started the negotiations centered on peace in Afghanistan at the sidelines of the Heart of Asia conference in Islamabad after a period of tense relations between the two countries. The fact that the two countries managed to agree on resumption of peace talks with the Taliban at such a crucial time shows that the two countries may have overcome many of their key differences over the peace process. After the relations between the two countries started to deteriorate a few months ago, the two sides traded accusations against each other. The recent agreement in Islamabad suggests the two countries have managed to resolve many of the sticking points related to the peace initiative.

President Ashraf Ghani has said that Islamabad would act against the militant groups who refuse to enter peace talks with the Afghan government. This statement was something new and different from the previous statements of Afghan officials over the outcomes of their talks with Pakistani officials. If proves true, and Islamabad takes action against militant groups who refuse to enter peace talks, it would define the success of the peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Pakistan’s possible action against Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network would be a turning point in the country’s policy over the Afghan conflict. If the governments of Afghanistan and Pakistan manage to cooperate on taking action by Pakistan against the Taliban, the Taliban would have no option but to come to table of negotiations.

However, Pakistan’s promised action against the Taliban and the Haqqani Network could turn into a factor ruining the peace talks with the Taliban. In fact, the promise would make the peace negotiations possible or would further deteriorate the disagreements between Afghanistan and Pakistan over Islamabad’s role in the Afghan conflict. If the government of Pakistan really takes action against the Taliban it will result to improved cooperation and more trust between the two countries. However, if Islamabad fails to take the promised action against the militants who refuse to enter the peace process, it will result to another period of distrusts and blame games in the relations between the two countries. But the obvious fact is that the two countries need to cooperate over peace in Afghanistan at any circumstances. Therefore, both Kabul and Islamabad need to realize their need for a sustainable cooperation disregard of each other’s failures and setbacks. This does negate the two sides’ need for remaining committed to their stances and promises in the process.

However, the recent attacks by the militants in Kabul and other provinces suggest the path ahead of the peace efforts would not be smooth. There are concerted attempts from the various militant groups to hamper the peace process or gain military advantages before any peace talks gets underway. There may be conflicting approaches from the many militant groups including the main faction of the Taliban into the peace negotiations with the Afghanistan government.

Some of the Taliban groups may come to negotiation table or be included in the peace process while others may continue to wage offensives against the government forces. While entering peace talks with the Taliban, both Pakistan and Afghanistan need to exert pressures on the groups opposing the political process for the settlement of the conflict.

The Taliban will probably increase their attacks aimed at gaining military advantages and claim to have the upper hand in the war efforts in Afghanistan. Both Kabul and Islamabad need to realize that the Taliban needs to be pressurized militarily to be convinced for a peace deal with the Afghan government. Pakistan needs to know the fact that it is highly likely that the peace process may once again fail if the Taliban attempts to gain political advantages by waging another wave of war and violence across Afghanistan. As promised by Pakistan, both countries should take joint actions against the Taliban and counter their offensives in Afghanistan. If the two countries fail to do so, the Taliban’s ongoing warfare could potentially hamper the fledgling peace talks and will further deteriorate the security situation not only in Afghanistan but Pakistan as well.

The two countries managed to largely overcome the distrusts of the recent months. Pakistani Prime Minister paid the most glorious welcome to Afghan president Ashraf Ghani when he arrived in Pakistan. The two countries reached agreements with representatives of world powers and regional players over starting the peace process in Afghanistan. Kabul and Islamabad should also be able to go ahead with the peace efforts in a sustainable manner. For this to happen, Pakistan should remain committed to its promise of taking action against the militants if they refuse to join the peace talks. In the past, the increase of the militant attacks has been a major factor behind the failure of the efforts to resume the peace talks. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan need to ensure this will not happen this time.