Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Sunday, July 7th, 2024

Ray of Hope for Syrian Problem!

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Ray of Hope for  Syrian Problem!

The resolution of Security Council about Syria is not so promising but it is definitely a change and shows a new direction in resolving this conflict. Leading this direction, we can hope a breakthrough in coming weeks or months. It is the first time that world powers have agreed on a unanimous resolution, as the rift between the protagonists of this war was so wide that making them agree on any resolution was almost impossible. The resolution has paved way for future talks and most importantly, it may make both the sides agree on a cease-fire, which is the need of time.

In this resolution, the good thing was the fact that the international supporters of this war; the West, Russia and Iran have agreed that peaceful negotiations and power sharing is the only way to resolve this conflict. It is hoped that after these powers agree upon a path to resolve this conflict, the actual warring factions can be made to agree upon talks and peaceful settlement of this conflict. Although the actual peace would come when the government of Bashar-al-Assad and the rebel forces agree on a cease-fire but both the sides are under the influence of their international supporters and it would be difficult for them to ignore or reject a proposal put forth by the mutual agreement of international powers.

According to this resolution, which is given the number of 2254, UN will form a transitional and united Syrian government within six months and then in 18 months, a new constitution will be formulated. In the light of this constitution, independent and democratic elections will be held when the people of Syria will decide upon their representatives who will then take the control of affairs of the country and the country will change into a democratic state from a monarchy.

The role of Assad in the future setup of the country has been put on a side as it was the main reason that such talks were never fruitful in past. The rebels and its Western allies were never in favor of any share of Assad in future government of the country. On the other hand, any arrangement without the inclusion of Assad was not acceptable for Assad and its supporters of Russia and Iran. It is the reason why, the role of Assad in future government has been left untouched so that the initial ceasefire can be achieved. However, the Western powers are confident that when fair and independent elections will be held, people will dismiss Assad and it would automatically end the decades’ long rule of Assad family.

All the involved powers had reached to similar consensus in past as well but then another question was left unanswered; who would control the elections and what would be the rules in these elections? These questions have been addressed for the first time and UN has been given the responsibility of this tough task. The representatives of Assad government and rebel groups will meet in Riyadh to decide upon the rest of the things. After this, there would be the announcement of ceasefire and further steps would be taken for the formation of a united, transitional government. In these elections, the Syrians in Syria and the Syrian refugees abroad will cast their vote.

However, all the participating powers agreed that ISIS is a mutual enemy and there will be no role of this terror organization in future. It is the case with some factions of Al-Nusrah Front.

However, there is a long list of problems as well. Firstly, it may take many years before ISIS is fought and eliminated. Although the Russian involvement has increased the pace of destruction of this terror group but having a look at their resistance against the bombing of US and Western powers for more than a year, it is feared that it may take long for complete annihilation of this group. It would only be a dream to hold free, safe and secure elections in parts of Syria ruled by Daesh. Another problem is the differences between the identification of different rebel groups. Excluding Daesh, the West supports almost all the rebel groups while the same groups have been labeled as terror groups by the government of Assad and it is the reason that, Russian bombings have indiscriminately bombed Daesh and other rebel groups. In the talks, it would emerge as the main disagreement between the two sides.

Similarly, the role of Saudi Arabia has been controversial. The Assad establishment accuses it of the moral and physical support of rebel groups. The talks are going to be held in the Saudi capital of Riyadh where the two sides are to meet. Russia will have to exert its pressure to bring the negotiators of Assad on the table.

According to a number of political analysts, this resolution is an indicator of a u-turn in the stance of West. The futile past talks on the issue are the reminders that West was not ready to accept any role of Assad in the future of Syria. However, the scenario changed in the last few years. The involvement of Iran and aerial support of Russia helped change the scenario in Syria. Initially, it was hoped that rebels would soon overthrow the government of Assad but the regime forces showed more resistance than expected. Recent military support from Iran and involvement of Russia gave a new life to the forces of Assad. It is the reason why, the government forces have emerged stronger in last few months. The internal fighting and ineffectiveness of rebel groups also weakened them and barred them from achieving their aim of overthrowing the government of Assad. Present circumstances show a grim picture of future for rebel groups and their international supporters. With Assad forces getting stronger with every passing day, the rebels would be pushed back and Assad would once again be ruling the whole of Syria. In such circumstances, it appears quite reasonable if a peace deal is brokered, in which the future role of Assad should be minimized and rebel groups should be given a support on the diplomatic end, if it was not successful from military point of view.

Another fact is the worsening situation of civilian casualties in the country. Now that death toll is reaching to 300,000 and the world is experiencing the worst refugee crisis, all the powers are desperate to bring an end to this conflict. The human loss is more than any justification that was initially given by Western powers. Without looking at the gain and loss of any side, it was badly felt that world powers should sit together to stop the loss of human lives in this war.

A temporary ceasefire would also halt the fleeing refugees and it may ease pressure from the neighboring Syrian countries that are hosting millions of Syrians.

Though there are so many problems but peaceful settlement is the only solution to this bloody problem and the first step has been taken in this regard.

Muhammad Rasool Shah is a permanent writer of Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at muhammadrasoolshah@gmail.com

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