As first meeting of face-to-face peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban is being planned by the Quadrilateral Coordination Group in the first week of March, the militants are attempting to step up military offensive and mount further bombings across the country. The two deadly suicide bombings which rocked the capital city of Kunar province and the city of Kabul on Saturday left 23 people dead and more than fifty people wounded. The bombings are coming as part of greater efforts by the Taliban to expand violence and threaten major areas in the north and south of the country. The attacks, which are among the deadliest assaults organized by the Taliban in recent months, are sending worrying signals from the Taliban over their participation in the talks planned for early March and their overall approach to the future peace negotiations.
The deadly bombings occur a few days after the four-nation peace coordination group – which is comprised of Afghanistan, Pakistan, US and China – announced the plans for peace talks in March and called on the groups of Taliban and other militants to join the first meeting of peace talks to be held in the Pakistani capital Islamabad. Pakistan, which is believed to have influence over the Taliban, also announced that it has contacted the militant groups and asked them to introduce their competent representatives in the Islamabad meeting. The Taliban have so far declined to confirm their participation. After the conclusion of QCG in Kabul, a spokesman of the group’s political office in Qatar said they were unaware of what are going on in Kabul for resumption of peace talks. With such remarks, Taliban’s participation in the talks still remains uncertain.
This is an approach seemingly being tactically used by the Taliban. Despite the beliefs that the group is prepared to join the Table of negotiation, they apparently are not willing to rush into negotiations for peace as they see themselves in advantageous position. The Taliban do not seem to miss any opportunity to boost their stance and come at the end from a stronger position. Most probably, the Taliban will continue to play with the peace plans and buy time to take advantage of warmer seasons ahead to increase violence. While the four-nation group is waiting for their response, they are mounting further bombings and suicide attacks along their military offensives across the country.
On the contrary, the Afghan government seems to be in hurry to pursue Taliban to come to the table ahead of another year of heightened insurgency in the country. This is while almost all the developments on the ground do not seem to be in favor of the government. Taliban continue threatening major towns and cities in the north and south of the country while government forces are struggling to contain the insurgency by fighting the militants in several fronts. The challenges for the Afghan National Security Forces are particularly compounded by instability and uncertainty in the higher leadership of the armed forces. While the army is led by a caretaker minister, the police and intelligence agencies are suffering from frequent changes and replacements in the leadership of the forces. The government recently announced that the interior minister has resigned and a new minister would be introduced for the slot.
The challenges facing Afghan security forces are extensive and far-reaching. A large part of the challenges are believed to stem from lack of leadership in the forces. A recent leaked report suggest that tens of thousands of police soldiers desert each year as result of high rate of casualties, low incentives for the serving soldiers and other problems. The ANSF also face immense institutional and operational problems in the fight against the Taliban. American military commanders recently advised the ANSF not to rely on staying in protected check posts but to take the war into the enemies’ ground. NATO commanders have also recommended to make reforms in the army and police by bringing changes to senior leadership. All these challenges contribute to the lackluster performance of the security agencies in tackling the insurgency.  The problems are not limited to the security agencies. The entire political system in the country is in disarray due to economic challenges, corruption and political rifts among the political community in the country. The government’s fight against corruption has been criticized in recent weeks by national and international transparency groups. They even alarmed that a serious anti-corruption campaign was a prerequisite for peace and democracy in the country. The national unity government’s policy to tackle corruption is believed to have doomed to failure.  Morales among both the security forces, government officials and politicians are very low. There are talks in the media and political circles of deteriorating situation close to brink of a political breakdown in the country. An undeniable fact is that political cohesion is now largely absent in the country.
The facts on the ground leave the government in a weaker position in the talks with the insurgent groups. The Taliban have been consolidating power in recent months, with organizing successful operations against rival groups such as the Islamic State and the rival Taliban faction led by Mullah Rassoul. Other rival groups are no longer matching the Taliban in terms of power, better organization and ability to launch offensives. This is another factor giving the Taliban a military supremacy against the government. All these military superiority puts the Taliban in an upper hand in the future talks with the Afghan government. It would be crucially hard, if not impossible, for the government to be the winner of such talks. It is crucial for the government to ensure that it is at least in a balanced stance, if not having an upper hand, in the talks. The government needs to gain some notable military achievements and promote political cohesion along with good governance in the country. Only this would help the government to negotiate from a stronger position and secure a viable peace deal with the insurgent groups.