The Taliban announced its annual spring offensive codenamed ‘Omari operation’. According to a Taliban statement, the operation aims to capture new territories, target government officials and organizing suicide bombings. With the onset of the spring offensive, a sharp rise in security incidents and further deterioration of security is expected in the coming months. The government has labeled the announcement as propaganda with the aim to boost the morale of Taliban’s scattered forces. The authorities insist that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) are prepared to confront the Taliban on the battlefield as they are now better equipped and have firmer determination to repel the Taliban offensive.
The Taliban’s spring offensive is coming at a time when the group is already engaged in a bitter battle against the government forces in many fronts across the country. The army and police forces have launched an operation named “shafaq” to curb the Taliban and hit their hideouts to disrupt their preparations for this year’s seasonal fighting. A major military operation is going on in the southern Helmand province where the Taliban have a strong presence and have had gains in some strategic districts of the province. According to the government, the operation has been able to strike heavy casualties on the Taliban with killing dozens of militant fighters.
The Taliban’s spring offensive this year in fact has been already started and the announcement is marking a possible sharp intensification of the fighting between the Taliban and government forces. In contrary to previous years which there were relative lulls in the violence in winter seasons, the Taliban’s activities continued throughout the last winter while the government forces also kept the pressure on the militants by organizing military operations in the provinces where Taliban seemed to be active in preparations for the upcoming battle. The formal announcement of the Taliban’s spring offensive will lead to more bloodshed and violence where the civilians will suffer the most. Last year was the year with ever-highest civilian casualties which will probably further increase in this year’s fighting season.
The authorities have been using a much high-toned rhetoric in recent months over the preparedness of Afghan forces for containing the Taliban’s offensive in 2016. It is expected that the security agencies would perform better this as the Afghan air force have received new warplanes and other equipment since last year. However, there are still high risks that the Taliban again would be able to push for more gains and take territories like they did last year. The Taliban have become more aggressive in recent years with organizing more sophisticated attacks and targeting high-value government and public targets. After the withdrawal of the bulk of NATO forces, the resurgent Taliban have been fighting for bigger gains such as capturing more strategic provinces and towns.
Afghanistan’s fledgling air force is now the new hope of the Afghan government in boosting ground forces in the battle against the Taliban. The air force is expected to be able to provide some air support which the security forces desperately need. Afghan authorities say security forces are going to fight this year in a more invasive way with the aim to take the war to the militants’ ground and prevent them from taking more grounds. NATO commanders advising Afghan security agencies have recommended several changes in the command and the war tactics of Afghan security forces which include taking a more invasive approach and abandoning the outposts that are vulnerable to Taliban attacks and unable to maintain security in remote areas. Based on the recommendations, Afghan forces seem to have adopted a different war approach focusing on launching large-scale offensive operations.
There is no indication of Taliban’s being weakened as result of military operations of the Afghan government but there is sufficient indicating that the group has grown stronger. The Taliban senior leadership seems to have largely settled internal feuds and rivalry which broke out after the announcement of death of Mullah Omar and succession of Mullah Mansoor as his replacement. This will inevitably affect the situation on the battleground and will further consolidate the Taliban’s front in the war. During last year seasonal fighting, the group managed to have major gains with momentarily taking districts and the northern province of Kunduz. Despite the Taliban’s failure to keep most of the captured strategic areas during last year’s fighting, the victories have boosted their morale, and this is a major headache for the Afghan security forces to deal with this year.
Keeping in mind that the Taliban have grown stronger than previous years, there is no doubt that the upcoming fight will be much fiercer and more difficult. There are hopes that the better-equipped air force of Afghanistan and the change of war strategy of Afghan security forces against the Taliban would turn the tide in favor of the government forces. However, due to the many factors mentioned there is still much place for pessimisms and skepticisms over the handling of the war by the government. Despite the fact that the withdrawal of NATO forces had impacts for the unfinished war in Afghanistan, the government of Afghanistan deserves much of the blames for the mishandling of the anti-insurgency campaign.
The Afghan government has failed to fill the vacuums in leadership of the defense ministry and the intelligence agency, the national directorate of security. This will inevitably affect the ongoing efforts to curb the new offensive announced by the Taliban. The government needs to do more to ensure victory of the Afghan security forces in this year’s campaign against the militant groups. The apparent shift in the war strategy and tactics is not simply going to ensure success of government forces to contain the Taliban’s seasonal offensive. The national unity government needs to act to boost the management of war by appointing security officials in the earliest time before the Taliban makes more gains on the battlefields.