In the South Asian context, non-proliferation is not merely nuclear question. The larger forces and interests at work both within the region and outside have to be understood. Regional security cannot be considered in isolation from global or extra- regional conditions. The efforts have to be on two parallel lines. At the global level, the states in the region have to participate in the process to bring about a truly legitimate and non- discriminatory non-proliferation regime. At the regional level, efforts to build bridges of understanding among the countries in the region through confidence-building measures has to be sustained. Hence, in South Asia, proliferation can best be achieved through a proper mix of global and regional approaches. Particularly, because of the awesome destructive potential of nuclear weapons their actual use is unthinkable. Even in low- level nuclear combat with millions of fatalities there would be no winner, apart from the doubtful survivability of crude weapons. It is more so in the case of close South-Asian neighbours like India and Pakistan.
Case of India and Pakistan
In case of both India and Pakistan national security concern has been the principal factor in the process of nuclearisation. Hostilities between the two countries have been there since partition in 1947. The key territorial issue of Kashmir has its root in the colonial history of the sub-continent and involved India, Pakistan and China. India’s nuclear calculations are centered on China which has an expanding nuclear arsenal. While, in contrast, Islamabad’s nuclear programme is driven mainly by its threat perception and security concern with respect to India. Pakistan sees its potential nuclear forces as a deterrent to India’s conventional military advantages and strategic ambitions. However, India, whose military build-up was spurred by its humiliating defeat in the 1962 war with China, viewed its nuclear programme as the vital component of a strategic plan to deter against a more powerful China. The nuclear chain in the world has been rightly observed by John J. Schulz who says, “The rationale presented by leading government officials in New Delhi and Islamabad to justify the current state of their weapons programme is analoguous to the Ocean food chain –big fish eats little fish which has just eaten the littlest fish. China created its nuclear deterrent with fears of Moscow and Washington in mind. China is feared by India and India is feared by Pakistan. All three countries justify their present nuclear policies as a solution to security problems–a fully declared arsenal in China, a nuclear weapons option in India and now in Pakistan ‘an ability to assemble as the equalising deterrent”.
Factor of nationalism
Next to security, nationalism is the propelling force of Indian and Pakistani nuclear programme. This is evident from the national consensus in each country on nuclear policy. Both countries enjoy overwhelming domestic support to their nuclear programme. Nationalism has played a key role in shaping Indian politics since Independence. Nehru championed self-reliance as part of India’s ‘‘neutralism” and New Delhi’s drive for indigenous science, technology and nuclear capability reflects that self- reliance. The Pakistani nuclear programme has also emerged as the leading symbol of Pakistani nationalism and pride. According to a retired Pakistani Army General, it enjoys b i p a r t i s a n a n d p o p u l a r s u p p o r t a n d i s a b o v e p o l i t i c a l controversy. Pakistan’s national interest demands that her nuclear capability to be taken to its logical conclusion. As Islamabad emerged as a technological leader of the Muslim World, its nuclear programme is a visible symbol of Islamic technological sophistication and power. In addition the desire to seek international respect and prestige is also an important incentive for nuclearisation in India and Pakistan. As one of the world’s oldest and most populous civilisation, New Delhi saw the acquisition of a nuclear weapon capability as the key to winning greater power status.
Effects of US policy in South Asia
In South Asia, one of the cardinal principles of the US foreign policy during past few decades has been to deter the acquisition of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan and it has made non-proliferation a central issue in bilateral relations with them. Since 1974, when India exploded its first nuclear device, successive US administrations have pushed for restraint by both countries, utilising a range of policy tools including diplomatic pressure, the withholding of cooperation, embargoes on the export of nuclear technology and the leverage of US assistance and arms sales. In fact, the US has sought to oppose proliferation in South Asia through all available means at its disposal. Its goal has been to inhibit the development or acquisition of such system as well as to prevent their use or threatened use. The US fear of a nuclear exchange in South Asia is, in fact, outcome of nuclear theology of the Western strategists which clearly state that nuclear weapons in the hands of non-nuclear and developing nations has greater possibility of their use.
Apart from these, several factors make the pressure of nuclear weapon capabilities on the sub-continent more posts dangerous than the Super Power nuclear rivalry that preceded it. Too many of the specific conditions in the region, including an asymmetrical balance of power, bitter personal remembrance, wars within living memory border and religious disputes and unstable and highly emotional domestic constituencies point to the need for nuclear capability.