Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Sunday, March 29th, 2020

Post Shaking of Doha-Agreement

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Post Shaking of Doha-Agreement

On 19 February 2020, the negotiation of Taliban and US was finalized and produced “The Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan.” Via an official ceremony, in the capital city of Qatar:  “Doha” both the US and the Taliban approved the treaty by having their signatures. Later on, it was called “Doha-Agreement” in official written communication in Afghanistan. The immediate consequence of the (“Doha-Agreement”) is to departure international forces from Afghanistan within 14 months and launching intra-Afghan talk.  However, it happened in a time that the current political situation of the country is not so pleasant and peaceful. The election crisis created gap among the politicians and political parties in a way that they do not have trust on each other’s words. In addition to that, the sociopolitical environment of the region changed in the favor of Taliban comparing to the years of 2001 ̶ the neighboring countries do not have cooperation with the Afghan government. To make clearer the topic, let me to explain some more issues which are inter- connected to each other, because by relating and distinction of the events the fact would be clearer to us.
Point 1, as a national issue the present generation of Afghanistan is named “war generation”; it means they are more aggressive rather than being peaceful citizens, because they were born at the time that internal conflicts have just started. From1979 -1990s war continued against the Soviet Union interfering Afghanistan. From 1990s-2000 war continued between Afghans: Northern Coalition and Taliban and from 2001-2020 US allies continued war with Taliban and other terrorist groups.
Point 2, it is good to know the main thought of US administration regarding Afghanistan from 2001 up to now briefly. The macro-goal for George W. Bush was the demolition of Al-Qaeda, as well as the full downfall of the Taliban, and establishing a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. For Barack Obama, it was encompassing approach - means those Taliban that leave violence, respect women, and esteem Afghan constitution must join within the Kabul administration.  For Donald Trump, it was just a reduction in violence and a clear path to the door—the Afghans themselves would have to figure out the rest. (https://goergewbush-whitehouse.archieves.gov/infocus/afghanistan/20040708.html)
Point 3, another issue, which has a link, is beside Afghanistan, in 2003 the Unites States invaded Iraq to disarm Saddam Hussein. According to U.S. President George W. Bush and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, the coalition aimed “to disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, to end Saddam Hussein’s support for terrorism, and to free the Iraqi people.” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_invasion_of_Iraq)
Point 4, issue that is more important is, the US force left alone Afghan National Defense and Security Forces in the battlefield. While they know that the intra - Afghan peace dialogue is consuming time and painfully slow ̶ might reach or not reach to a desirable conclusion.  Poverty, lack of job opportunities and insecurity, violent and starvation pressure the people of Afghanistan. Through compare and contrast of the above-mentioned proceedings, the theory of shifting Afghanistan from the United States to Russia is the question rises in the minds of Afghan educators today. To realize how much it is true or possible, let us have a look / or mind mapping three scenarios that drafted as the result of international countries behaviors towards Afghanistan.
First scenario, as it is planned is, the intra-Afghan dialogue continue smoothly, ceasefire announce and the both side show flexibility, reach to a positive conclusion, the final agreement draft and approve, both sides happy and look supportive to what agreed upon.  The US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad acts as a senior monitor of the implementing of the agreement elements. Since, the US know that being committed always was the hardest case in Afghanistan political history. Finally, the war over and peace come in the country – the US leadership is successful in the region.
Second scenario is based on the theory that “Afghans are very good in fighting but not successful in negotiation or intra-Afghan talk.”   Thus the intra-dialogue not come to the wanted conclusion, each party insist on his authority more, the negotiation got tough, timeless, bored, both sides become tired and upset, finally left the table, the neighboring country and regional power find the opportunity to interfere in Afghanistan in order to have their own obedient government on power, and conflicts jerk once more. The country face to new challenges, the US leadership fail in the region. Third scenario is centered on “tactic negotiation” the Taliban and the Afghan government reach to final point peacefully. Taliban show flexibility to make happy the international community and to show to the world that Taliban is an understandable group and support peace process.  But, both sides are looking for an opportunity, nevertheless, after the time their behavior change and in the next step they follow their own plan and group interest, Afghanistan experience a short peaceful time.  The United States leadership in the region succeed, but after a while, the sociopolitical changes in the favor of Russia. Thus, the theory, which says, “Afghanistan sifted from Soviet Union to the United States of America and now from America to Russia” might come true.
As the final statement, based on the implicit and explicit evident mentioned already, through “intra-Afghan talk”, the republic system and the constitution as well as the forms and the structures of Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) change. Some new names and titles will be adopted.  The Taliban would insist that republic system is not working well in Afghanistan as the experiences says. For instance, right now Afghanistan has two presidents! Taliban would suggest a new form of government, which is similar to Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan but a little different and the international community would then approve it. The sociopolitical challenges which are between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran and the relationship of Afghanistan with India are the unforgettable issues that influence on the new form of government in the country.  

Dawlat Bakhtiari is the newly emerging writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlookafghanistan@gmail.com

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