Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Monday, January 18th, 2021

I do not see light in the sky of peace with the Taliban!

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I do not see light in the sky of peace  with the Taliban!

The Taliban group has never come down off the high horse of religious and intellectual dogmatism, strict religious ideology, ethnic view of politics and government, ethnic hegemonic view, jurisprudential principle, physical elimination of the enemy in lieu of attracting rivals, anti-woman policy, use of violence to promote goals, and ultimately killing and blowing up the Afghan people to reach the pyramid of power, neither these notions have diminished in them a tad. How come, they all of a sudden have entered the peace process at the behest of the Americans? I do not see any light in such peace with the Taliban. A group that is still associated with religious and intellectual determinism and the emphasis on the originality of the Islamic Emirate’s thinking; one cannot expect anything called tolerance from them. Thus, in peace with the Taliban, seven following scenarios are predictable:
1. Creation of Prime-ministerial Islamic Emirate System:
The Taliban’s plan for post-peace Afghanistan is to establish a prime-ministerial Islamic Emirate government. The Taliban can in no way deny the Islamic Emirate, given their existential background and attachment to the ideology. Therefore, in this plan, the Islamic Emir will be based in Kandahar, and the Executive Premier will carry out the Emir’s orders in Kabul with a chairperson and three deputies. Most likely, its chairman will be Hamed Gilani, who has good relations with Pakistani intelligence, and probably its deputies will be Younis Qanuni, Karim Khalili, and one person from the Uzbek ethnicity.
2. Creation of a Joint, but Fragile Government:
One of the post-peace options is to form a condominium composed of the Taliban, the technocrats, and the Mujahedeen, however the formation of this consolidated and consensual government in the short term is impossible because the Taliban insist more on military victory and complete conquest. In the past, the Taliban have held several meetings with Mujahedeen leaders, and their emphasis has always been on a military solution and the physical elimination of rivals, at the behest of the Pakistani military and the 29-member council decision-making body revolving around Mullah Mohammad Omar. I do not think that collective peace and the establishment of a holistic and democratic government is a priority for this group, which is more radical and complex than the Taliban of the 1990s. Instead, the group will zero in more on complete conquest, and the Afghan National Army’s disarmament will be their first step.
3. Military Victory:
If the Loya Jirga had not called for the release of 400 Taliban prisoners, the Taliban would have decided to stage military offensives in 10 Afghan provinces and occupy them. With the United States’ mediation, they postponed the aim, nevertheless military conquest is a long-standing demand of Pakistan and the three Taliban circles.
4. Embarking upon a Fully-fledged Civil War:
This scenario may seem fearsome, but it’s not impossible. The post-2001 situation in Afghanistan has paved the ground for a fully-fledged civil war. The Americans, like the Russians, will withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, and their economic and financial resources to Afghanistan will be cut off thereto. The Taliban will take over the provinces, kill more people, and advance further.
On the other hand, people in northern Afghanistan will take up arms and become ready for a full-scale civil war with the Taliban. Supposedly, this scenario’s discourse will be shaped by ethnicity and identity, and Islamic affairs will be the floating signs of this discourse. By the same token, the Americans, in collusion with Pakistan, will establish a military base in the bordering areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan to avert the spread of terrorism to other parts of the world.
5. Fragmentation of Afghanistan:
There is no denying that Afghanistan will openly undergo fragmentation and formation of power archipelagos after the civil war and the lack of understanding and tolerance among Taliban leaders. The Taliban with religious and political dogmatism will not be accepted by the pluralistic and democratic society of Afghanistan, and the groups that will be formed against them will either fight to the last to fragment the country or go to an agreement to establish a weak central government within which, the emergence of a feudalistic state would not be beyond belief.
6. Victim of the Big Demand:
There is no doubt that small and underdeveloped countries usually have policies influenced by the orientation and will of major powers and powerful regional countries. Afghanistan, as a small country, and a dead society from the economic standpoint, sandwiched in the war of the regional and international intelligence agencies, should not fall victim to the will of the great powers this time. This high demand emanating from the understanding between the United States and Russia and the countries of the region to hand over power to the Taliban and Pakistan must be a great point of concern. In between, the Afghan people will be the victims of the demand at the end of the day.
7. Continuation of the Status Que:
Finally yet importantly, the seventh scenario would be the continuation of the current anarchic situation, the unknown condition of war and peace, lack of strengthening of the Afghan security forces against the Taliban, and creating a new game in the region.
What is the Solution?
If the Taliban enter the Afghan political campaign with the Talibanized thinking of the Islamic Emirate and religious, ethnic, and political dogmatism, a new generation of resistance will open up against them, and the war will continue. The Taliban can only govern this society by giving the people sovereignty, an allegory of democracy, acceptance of ethnic and political pluralism, as well as acceptance of the constitution and the achievements of past two decades; otherwise, they will not palate the good taste of a an enduring, peaceful and prosperous government of the Islamic Emirate that they dream of.
*Ramesh Noori is a university lecturer, political analyst, and social activist. He has a Master’s Degree in international relations from the Khatem-un-Nabien University in Afghanistan. He has served in many social and political capacities such as vice chancellor at a private universities in Kabul for three years and taught political science at different universities for six years.  He has written many articles for print and electronic media in Afghanistan and has two books ready to go to press.

Abdul Qahar Bakhshi is the newly emerging writer of the Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached outlookafghanistan@gmail.com

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