Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, March 29th, 2024

Revival of Quad: Possibilities and Prospect

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Revival of Quad: Possibilities and Prospect

In a changed global and regional milieu, once again, Japan came forward and invited all members of the Quad in August 2017 to hold a joint meeting of foreign ministers during the ASEAN summit scheduled in November where American President-elect Donald Trump met Abe of Japan and agreed to pursue a ’Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ strategy to especially counter the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative scheme. Chinese anxiety was multiplied due to the US interest in the matter as the group met five times between 2017-2019. It followed their reforming meeting in New York City in 2019 and then in Bangkok and on the instigation of US its members held first meeting of Quad Plus countries which include New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam and as a result a grand naval exercise was organised at Malabar in the year 2020 which followed a first ever meeting on 12 March 2021 under the leadership of Joe Biden, the new President of the United States. However, keeping in mind the back history of the organisation it’s not an easy to be united against China as all of them have close bilateral relations with Beijing despite all odds. In the context all should keep in consideration that; a. revival is only a signal but visibility is not objective but working together, b. will have to maintain a balance between internal and external transparency, c.in the set-up function is more important than form, d. each meeting should be result oriented, e. also be conscious about the Chinese effort to divide the Quad as earlier.
Background of revival
In fact, not formation of the Quad in 2007 but its revival in August 2017 on the initiation of Abe, the Prime Minister of Japan, appeared more challenging for member countries viewing the developments of last one decade in the Indian Ocean and their bilateral relations with Beijing because today it has become more difficult to encircle China both- regionally as well as globally. At present, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) scheme launched by China in the year 2013, has been recognised by most countries of the region and proliferated at world level, increasing the earlier status of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). On ideological fronts too, the liberal democratic order of the world is facing an unstoppable challenge from the State-run Capitalism and the universal benchmark set by the regime of China. Beijing, in particular with Xi Jinping and earlier have registered an unprecedented economic growth and lifted a large number of people from the below poverty line. Especially, the coming of Xi Jinping, his success in overall development of China and expanding its power and influence at global level and smartly using the geopolitical vacuum created by the relative decline of the west to reorder governance and the rule-based order have posed a challenge for the democratic system of the world at large. In last one decade the authoritarian and hegemonic behaviour of China have prompted many leading scholars and thought leaders to demand urgent action from the United States of America and the European Union to check and, if possible, stop China’ soft and hard dealing at regional and global levels. In addition, the decade 2007-2017 also witnessed intense defence preparations on the part of China and the US in the Indian Ocean and naval exercises on short intervals jointly by the Quad members on different places. These all gave a supportive hand for paving the revival of the Quad in 2017.
Forward movements
After a long gap the historic virtual summit of Quad member countries- India, Japan, Australia and the United States of America held in New York on 12 March 2021 and a joint statement issued marked the significant milestone in the evolution of Quad which also gave a positive signal across the Indo-Pacific. In the context sufficient background for the summit was prepared by elevating quad talks to the ministerial level in 2019 when foreign ministers of all member countries met on the sidelines of UN General Assembly meeting in New York in the month of September, followed by their twice met in-person in Tokyo in October 2020 and in February 2021. A positive sign witnessed with the assumption of Joe Biden as the new President of USA who form the first day expressed his willingness in containing China like his predecessor Donald Trump and sought to promote the Quad as a key component in the US-Indo-Pacific strategy and he gave special focus on group’s softer capabilities in place of singular counter China orientation. As the summit was conducted in between the period of Pandemic Covid-19 they also decided to supply vaccines for the needy ASEAN countries. The spirit of the Quad summit as noted in the preamble ‘we strive for a region that is free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion. It also expressed concerns for economic and health impacts of COVID-19, climate change, and shared challenges in cyber space, critical technologies, counterterrorism and many such issues haunting the whole humanity in general. They also decided to establish new working groups on vaccines, emerging tech, and climate and hold an in-person summit of member leaders by the end of 2021.
The real Chinese challenges
In 1990s the United States of America was twenty times bigger than the People’s Republic of China and today the difference between the two is only1.5 which shows the immense development China has made over the years. The country has proved itself in each and every sector, and therefore, the old or traditional perception about the nation demand it to be changed with values, power and privileged attached at regional and global levels. Its economy is today of US$12 trillion, the second largest in the world and most integrated globally, likely to overtake the US in less than a decade. The present volume of China’s economy is even much bigger than the USSR which was also a giant in military power, and hence, any threat of economic or trade sanction would certainly not work and may invite instability in world economy.  

Dr. Rajkumar Singh is the Professor and Head of Department of Political Science, Dean, Faculty of Social Sciences, Bhupendra Narayan Mandal University, Madhepura-852113. In Bihar, India. He can be reached at Email-rajkumarsinghpg@gmail.com

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