Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Friday, April 19th, 2024

How to Form Regional Consensus on Afghanistan

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How to Form Regional Consensus  on Afghanistan

As the United States and allies plan their withdrawal from Afghanistan, the country faces three interrelated challenges: a weak national state, rising Islamic radicalism based in Pakistan’s tribal belt, and zero-sum regional politics with the high potential to fuel another civil war in the country. The first two issues have received considerable political and scholarly attention, but the problems of regional politics remain less explored, in part because of the difficulties involved in drawing In the course of history, the region’s governments into a broad grand bargain providing a minimum interest for each player.
During the course of history, Afghanistan’s political problems have always been rooted in regional politics. British and Russian campaigns in the past had to deal with tensions between domestic Afghan and regional politics; At the sometime, political analysists hold that regional politics have also shaped the U.S. strategy from the start of its Afghan campaign.  Over the past two decade, both the Barack Obama and Trump administrations have sought to rally the region’s other governments to help stabilize Afghanistan, but these efforts have come up short. With the United States and allies planning to draw down their troop presence by September 2021, the search for a regional settlement has intensified. As the fate of a broadly inclusive political settlement with the Taliban is not certain, the worsening security situation in Afghanistan risks another civil war that could allow al-Qaeda and other extremists to return and regroup amid the chaos. specifically, India and Pakistan would likely take opposing sides in such a conflict, that eventually could further destabilize the region and beyond. The state actors involved—Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and the United States—have acknowledged that another civil war would be disastrous, but none of them appears able to mitigate the structural conditions in place. The expectation in Pakistan is that the successor to the government of President Ghani will not survive the challenges of the international drawdown in military and financial assistance.  The heavily imbalanced composition of the Afghan National Army is likely to exacerbate ethnic tensions. In such case Pakistan would support Taliban, recognizing Pakistan’s inevitable involvement in Afghanistan, India has been cementing its relations with the Ghani government. 
The Central Asian states, Iran, China, and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar and UEA  all have important interests in Afghanistan, but the India-Pakistan rivalry is the central tension that any regional solution must address. Some political experts think It may be impossible to prevent another civil war in Afghanistan. But not trying to mitigate the balance-of-power contest in the country would be misguided. The consequences of intensified rivalry between India and Pakistan would be dramatic, diminishing the prospect of peace in Afghanistan and disrupting broader regional stability.
However, other political analysts believe that a political settlement is possible with the mediation of Turkey and genuine supports of the US, EU, China and Russia.
Policy of De-hyphenation a Failed Policy to Prevent Pakistan from Interference in Afghanistan
Most US administrations have pursued a policy of “de-hyphenation,” in order to mitigate the consequences of the zero-sum nature of regional politics, so called because the United States saw the region mainly through the lens of the India-Pakistan rivalry and was seeking to put its bilateral ties with each country on separate tracks to minimize the effects of their mutual animosity toward U.S. foreign policy. Based on this policy Pakistan has received military and economic assistance from the US even once was designated a major non-NATO ally. Pakistan has remained ambivalent in its support for U.S. goals in Afghanistan regardless of what strategy the US has applied to engage constructively Pakistan in Afghanistan. Rather Pakistanis to turn against radicalism, Pakistan has increasingly supported the Taliban and other terrorist groups which operate under the cover of Taliban in Afghanistan. According to various intelligence reports Pakistan remains as a country most supportive of the terrorist groups.
The rank and file of the Pakistan Army appears to be more engaged in supporting the terrorist groups than before.  The intensification of war in Helmand and other parts of Afghanistan including the north and killing many Pakistani al-Qaeda members in Helmand and other parts of Afghanistan show that Pakistan is not only providing equipment and intelligence support to the Taliban and other terrorist groups but they are directly engaged in the war in Afghanistan. In such a context, it is a waste of time if the US and international community think they can engage Pakistan in a constructive manner in addressing the Afghanistan issue. The US and international community shall put Pakistan under pressure to make Taliban to take part in the Intra Afghan peace talks, if not so, the US and international community shall consider tough sanctions against Pakistan and Talban. This policy will make Pakistan to cooperate with other regional players and play a constructive role in bringing peace in Afghanistan, the region and beyond.

mohd.Sakhi Rezaie is the permanent writer of the Daily OutlookAfghanistan. He can be reached at sakhi2007@gmail.com

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