Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, March 28th, 2024

Ghani Can Learn From Assad How to Survive

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Ghani Can Learn From Assad How to Survive

Pakistan plays a critical role in Afghanistan. It has been behind creation of different military groups in the country and have control over them. Taliban is also a group created by Pakistan, especially supported by the military elites and fundamentalist clerics and Saudi Arabia deterrence policies. The US has given a special attention and status to Pakistan in Afghan Peace talks. Many observers believe that without Pakistan’s support reaching to a viable peace in Afghanistan is impossible.
Why Afghanistan Matters for China Built and Road Initiative
China needs to have good relations with South Asian Nations and to boost its economic interests. This requires a peaceful and stable Afghanistan to facilitate Chain’s reach to the South Asian countries. As China has an ambitious plan to realize its vision by BRI, it has pledged to invest an estimated $62 billion bundle of projects that forms the cornerstone of China’s sweeping Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to build infrastructure, expand trade links, and deepen ties across Eurasia and Africa.
Extending CPEC to Afghanistan Stabilizes the Country
Pakistan’s shift from strategic depth to geostrategic approach to Afghanistan is seen as a key turning point that can have immense implications on the relations of the two country and region. Such strategic shifting is considered a rational policy by Pakistan to align its policies with China’s economic policies in the region including CEPEC.
CEPEC has a strategic significance for Afghanistan; because it not only can bring peace to the country, but it provides strategic economic development opportunities to Afghanistan and changes the country to a major transit player in the region. CPEC is a great project that is equally relevant to Afghanistan like Pakistan and it is not only good for Pakistan but it is good for the entire region including Afghanistan. CPEC will contribute to economic development and prosperity of Afghanistan. Further, Afghanistan by becoming a part of the CPEC can recover the damages of war it has suffered during the four decades of war.
Considering the significance of CPEC for Afghanistan Beijing has also made moves to extend CPEC to Afghanistan, looking to stabilize the country and improve its political and economic links to the country as U.S. troops withdrawal completes by September 2021. In addition to this, Beijing has proposed “sizeable investments in energy and infrastructure projects” in Afghanistan in hopes of ensuring a peaceful transition if there is a withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan.
CPEC as A Means of Regional Partnership
Economic experts think CPEC is not limited to Pakistan, it is for the entire region particularly Central Asia. CPEC can benefit Afghanistan and Central Asian countries by enhancing connectivity of the region. Economic observers believe (CPEC), is not only intensifying Pakistan’s importance to Asia but advancing regional connectivity across Central and South Asia. The project provides opportunities for regional connectivity by involving multiple states in developmental projects that all parties can benefit. Through the modalities of connectivity made possible by this flagship BRI initiative, the landlocked Central Asian Republics (CARs) and Afghanistan can now envision gaining access to the Indian Ocean and South Asia, enhancing their bilateral or multilateral economic relations through enhanced trade opportunities. 
Saudi Arabia and Iran Rivalry is one of the causes of long conflict and war in Afghanistan. As Iran and Saudi Arabia have also shown interest to be part of the CPEC, it improves the likelihood of reaching to a sustainable peace deal in Afghanistan to accelerate CPEC as part of BRI to provide them huge economic benefits. Pakistan has welcomed the interest shown by Iran and Saudi Arabia.  Political and economic experts think CPEC as part of BRI is a great opportunity for Afghanistan. As different players are involved in the war in Afghanistan, there should be a strategic alternative to satisfy them to cooperate in restoring peace in Afghanistan in order to enjoy economic benefits that CPEC and BRI provide them. Pakistan has continuously supported Taliban, facilitated recruitment, training and equipping them, sending them to Afghanistan and has financed them as part of Pakistan military’s doctrine of “strategic depth”. China’s BRI and CPEC as part of it can play a significant role in Pakistan military’s doctrine shift to economic geostrategic doctrine that can bring peace to Afghanistan and region. As a result, Afghanistan neighboring countries, region and beyond can benefit from the economic privileges of these projects. CPEC will also bring the two arch foes namely Iran and Saudi Arabia to cooperate in bringing peace in Afghanistan in order to benefit from economic benefits of it. Although, all of these seem as a miracle, but China can help Afghanistan to realize this big dream by BRI and CPEC implementation.

The US military is rapidly working on its complete withdrawal from Afghanistan. The US has closed an important base in volatile Helmand province. The US air force transport planes are regularly departing taking back with them military hardware. It is planned that around 1,300 pieces of equipment which can’t be taken back will be either destroyed or given to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). But while this withdrawal process is going on Taliban on other hand continues with their push to capture more territory. Taliban fighters captured Afghanistan’s second-biggest dam known as Dahla Dam in southern Kandahar province that provides irrigation, power and drinking water. Also, the group is on a major offensive in Helmand province, since the start of this month. It’s highly speculated that after foreign forces completely withdraw from the country. The Afghanistan government headed by President Ashraf Ghani will face tough challenges by Taliban and other terrorist groups covered by Taliban in order to take control of the entire territory currently controlled by the Afghan government after withdrawal.
I have been tracking the Syrian conflict since its initial phases one thing I can say with certainty that the Syrian government has revealed an extraordinary ability to survive. Despite the blows, Assad regime suffered initially in the conflict. It didn’t collapse or crumbled and has even succeeded in saving the cohesion of its civilian government systems, military forces, and security apparatus. As such, some tactical moves of the Assad regime can definitely be looked upon. Also, in Afghanistan geopolitical arena I got the opportunity to interview some important Taliban leaders and government officials over a period of time. So, by doing some comparative study of both these conflicts. I can say that some key things which ensured that the Syrian regime is able to survive can be learnt by the Afghan government as well. Let’s look at the factors which have contributed to strengthening the position of Syrian President Assad which also can be used in Afghanistan.
Strong Support of Allies- The most decisive factor which led to the military victory of President Assad was immense support of his allies i.e., Russia, Iran and Hezbollah. Likewise, the Afghan government needs to ensure that even after withdrawal it most important ally United States at least keep on providing financial assistance, armaments, intelligence information. Also, material support from other regional allies should also be ensured.
Wise Deployment of Forces- Since the start of the Syrian conflict President Assad organised reliable forces by selectively deploying units, raising pro-regime militias, and pursuing a clear and hold strategy in major urban areas using indirect fire. The same way Afghan government should deploy only the most loyal and competent forces around its core territories and major urban centres. Elite and special forces should focus around the capital Kabul.
Effective use of Airforce- Syrian regime committed air force had become the most significant instrument in the regime’s all major military campaigns against the rebels. Also, the Afghan government have a functioning air force that may not be very advanced but still can inflict major losses to insurgents. Afghan Air Force should be used for deep strikes in the enemy territory targeting ammunition storage, concertation of forces and high-value targets.
Minorities Support- All the minority groups in Syria .i.e., Christians, Alawites, Druze and Ismaelites firmly support President Assad. Afghan government should also ensure that all the ethnic minorities support his regime. But for that, a strong message needs to be conveyed that only the legitimate government can provide security to minorities in the country.
Divide Rebel Ranks- Infighting among the rebel ranks has plagued the Syrian opposition since the start of the uprising against the regime in 2011. In Syria division among the rebels was mainly because of local rivalries as well as ideological differences between jihadists and more nationalist groups. The Afghan government should also try to create a divide between the ranks of the insurgents and also between different groups. This will obviously benefit the regime.
Hold on Population and Economic Centres- Syrian regime hold over the majority of the surviving Syrian population centres provides the opportunity to tap manpower reserves to aid the regime’s fight and also restricts civilians from joining the Syrian opposition. If Kabul ensures that it has firm control over the major population and economic centre of the country. It will immensely benefit from enduring economic activity that generally don’t exists in insurgent-held areas. And also, this will ensure that government forces will get a constant supply of new recruits.
Strong Intelligence- Syrian regime ensured that its intelligence agency i.e., Military Intelligence Directorate is very effective and always on toes. It will be very advantageous for Afghan government forces if they are provided with accurate intelligence inputs. Kabul should focus on increasing advanced electronic surveillance capabilities, and cross-communication between its intelligence service i.e., National Directorate of Security (NDS) and security forces in the field.
These measures won’t make the Afghan government victorious in the conflict. But they will ensure that government is able to survive and there is no total statelessness. It won’t be morally right to suggest that an elected government should try to hold on to some key areas only.But these measures should only be adopted when there is an imminent threat of state collapse. Otherwise, the government should always aim to control every inch of its territory.

Author is a columnist for Middle-East and Af-Pak region and Editor of geo-political news agency ViewsAround can be reached at manishraiva@gmail.com

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