The optimism about Afghanistan's mineral resources has once again been heightened by the reports of the deal with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to commence an oil exploration and extraction venture in Afghanistan. The contract will allow CNPC to develop, with a local partner – Watan Group, oil blocks in the northern provinces of Sar e Pul and Faryab – commonly known as Amu Darya Basin, which is expected to have large reservoirs of oil (according to certain calculations about 87 million barrels of oil).

The President's Office has officially declared, "The Afghan cabinet has ordered mines minister Wahidullah Shahrani to sign an oil exploration contract for Amu Darya with China National Petroleum Corporation." This contract is the first contract with a foreign company to unearth oil reserves of Afghanistan.

According to a statement the 70 percent of the profit from the venture would go to government. However, at the same time there are certain ambiguities regarding the outcome of the venture and there are some experts who are not very much optimistic about it.

Tony Regan of Tri-Zen, a Singapore based consultancy, has, in this regard, mentioned, "To a certain extent they are taking a punt. It is about five to ten years before they can get a feel of what is under the ground and start commercially producing it." Nevertheless Charles Chaw of China Knowledge Consulting has remarked, "The deal is a way of getting a foot inside the door... China is looking towards a much bigger scale of investment... This could involve projects in infrastructure, including high-speed rail in times to come."

What is going to be the future of this venture is yet difficult to say. However, it would require a great deal of work and at the same time a long term of peace and tranquility in the country to support such ventures and reaching to success.

So far, many investors have hesitated to invest, because of the prevailing insecurity, in Afghanistan's mine sector which is considered as the future of the country. This particular contract, however, seems an optimistic step in this regard but it would remain a fact that mining sector in Afghanistan still requires a lot of effort and concentration to start pouring wealth in Afghanistan's economy.

According to findings by various sources there are trillion dollars of mineral resources in Afghanistan that still lay unearthed by the authorities and that have the capacity to boost the Afghan economy to a large extend and shoulder it without support from other countries and international organizations.

Unfortunately, the security situation in the country has remained very much doubtful for the last few decades and that has not encouraged the attentions to be diverted towards these reservoirs and make benefits from them.

Today Afghanistan is at a better position and there are possibilities that the country can make use of these reservoirs; however, the situation of peace and tranquility still remains an important factor for these possibilities to be converted to realities. A recent report suggests that Afghanistan will be able to support its economy independently by 2024 mainly on the basis of its mining sector, provided that security situation remains stable.

The country's minister for mining, Wahidullah Shahrani, once mentioned that there are expectations that the country's natural resources may be able to make for almost half of country's GDP by 2024. Moreover, he also has the expectations that projects and contracts will not be just limited to mining rather they will also include some other necessary processes like refining and smelting.

However, that would require additional work and a lot of additional equipments. The natural resources of the country have remained untouched and there have not been even preliminary work done in this regard. Therefore, everything has to be started right from beginning and that would require a lot of work. Optimistic expectations in this regard have to be backed properly by very determined and practical measures otherwise intention may end up in smoke.

Currently, Afghanistan has been highly dependent on international support to run its economic system. The international troops that have been in the country for almost a decade are preparing to withdraw from the country and that withdrawal is going to end till 2014.

After the withdrawal is complete there are possibilities that the international aid entering the country may reduce considerably. Though, in the Bonn II conference the international community has made promises that the support for the country may continue till 2024, the international political and economic circumstances point towards some other facts – they clearly depict that there will be a considerable decline in financial support to Afghanistan, if not complete negligence.

On the other hand the security situation in the country has been going through a deteriorating trend. The terrorism seems to be rising in some of the most important parts of the country and the security situation still remains a question mark. Moreover, the regional ties seem to be weakening and the reconciliation process seems out of shape. In fact reliable security still remains dubious.

In such circumstances, development of a strong mining sector seems a herculean task. The mining sector is not just about digging the minerals out of the earth. It includes a complete infrastructure. It involves complicated processes, machinery and latest technology.

Above all it requires a reliable and working transportation system that must be free of risk and must prove helpful in transporting heavy equipments and human resource to the mountainous areas where minerals are located. In addition, the same transportation system must transfer the minerals that are dug out to different plants for being refined and changed to usable conditions.

The mining sector also requires strong, cheap and reliable communication system that must remain undisturbed by the culprits. As a matter of fact, for the whole process, in order to reach to its final phase, a lot of investment and a decade or more of peaceful socio-political circumstances are required. While forming expectations about mining sector, it is necessary for the government officials to keep in considerations all these facts.

Shahrani in one of his interviews rightly mentioned, "The advantage of the mineral [projects] is that it will create more jobs." He has also mentioned in a message on Ministry of Mines website that Afghanistan has been "endowed with vast quantities of natural resources.

Unique to Afghanistan, these resources have remained untouched and undeveloped. Generations of instability have resulted in little exploration, minor development attempts and an inadequate infrastructure for development and transportation of these resources." Definitely, generations of instability have incapacitated Afghanistan to work on these resources but at the same time it would require, at least a generation if not generations of stability to bring these resources in use.