Afghanistan has been at the lap of the international community over the past one decade. Significant improvements in various spheres as diverse as economic development to human rights to promotion of political pluralism have been achieved. The challenges ahead, nonetheless, are formidable; in fact so massive that the future of Afghanistan beyond 2014 is shrouded in ambiguity.

This uncertainty is palpable among Afghans in general as well as among many international observers who wonder at the magnitude of Afghanistan's needs and the equivalent reluctance of the international community to foot the bill. What is certain is that, beyond 2014, Afghanistan will need many more years of generous international financial assistance if the gains made are to be preserved and further expanded.

The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) is already forecasted to cost a whopping $6 billion on an annual basis. Afghanistan's own resources, even after taking into account the current mineral and hydrocarbon projects after they start to provide a cash flow for the government, will be far below this figure.

This leaves financing of the bulk of the ANSF on the shoulders of an international community that grows more hesitant by day. As I have mentioned earlier, one real concern is that with the primacy placed on Afghanistan's security needs, other needs of Afghanistan such as its massive development requirements will be neglected and remain under-financed.

While there can be no doubt that addressing Afghanistan's development challenges and lessening the burdens of unemployment, poverty and destitution is a pressing need of Afghanistan, unfortunately, these imperatives fall on the lower end of international community's priorities for Afghanistan.

Meeting such short-term to medium-term challenges as bringing the ongoing peace and reconciliation process with the Taliban to a logical conclusion and facilitating a smooth process transition to Afghanistan government by the end of 2014 take primacy over addressing Afghanistan's more long-term challenges – among them sustaining the Afghan economy, aiding accelerated economic growth, a re-industrialization of Afghanistan's traditional industries, employment generation and poverty alleviation.

The current unsustainable infusion of humanitarian and military spending dollars into the Afghanistan economy cannot be an open-ended commitment. Sooner or later, this flow will significantly diminish and with it, much of the bubble of artificial growth over the past one decade will deflate. Is Afghanistan prepared for this looming eventuality or it will come as a rude shock with Afghans in general taking the hit as it has always been.

The situation in Afghanistan continues to be a matter of grave concern with the majority of the people languishing in acute poverty and the government and the international community unable to bring about lasting change to the lives of ordinary Afghans.

Beyond 2014, what is extremely disconcerting is the international community's diminished assistance in both cash and kind, and, parallel to that, the government of Afghanistan's impotence and lack of any clear vision. As far as the international community is concerned, in spite of all the loud pronouncements of the donor community not to abandon Afghanistan, it is a matter of certainty that the volume of aid will diminish significantly.

This reduction will manifest itself in the volume of the aid that the donor community will pledge to Afghanistan as well as the actual amount of funds that will be ultimately disbursed. Channeling of funds through the government of Afghanistan's annual development budget will be reduced.

Channeling of funds through non-governmental organizations would also diminish given the fact that, already, the funds available with the donors have significantly diminished over the past 2 years. Another major area of concern is that the military-related spending inside Afghanistan will mostly dry up after 2014 given the fact that the majority of foreign troops will be withdrawn from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

Although the NATO-led international coalition's military-related spending in Afghanistan is well above $100 billion dollars on an annual basis, only a small fraction of this spending directly or indirectly enters into the economy of Afghanistan. This small fraction is still very important for the economy of Afghanistan and accounts for more than $2 billion in cash injection into the economy of Afghanistan.

This military-related spending is also important to the stability of the national currency's exchange rate. If you cut out the military-related spending from the economy of Afghanistan, it will lead to much lower demand for Afghani.

The result can easily be a quick devaluation of Afghani and a freefall in the value of the national currency if the government of Afghanistan and Da Afghanistan Bank with help from the international community does not act proactively while the time lasts. 

Perhaps the most serious threat to the future of Afghanistan is political in nature. The ongoing political instability in Afghanistan with the government in Kabul still burdened by a major credibility crisis and the threat of Taliban becoming yet larger are by far the most formidable challenges to the future of Afghanistan.

The so-called peace process is now effectively bifurcated with the U.S. and the government of Afghanistan pursuing two different paths with varying degrees of success. The government of Afghanistan's efforts have largely been limited in scope, lacking strategic depth and plagued by the Taliban leadership's reluctance to engage in serious talks.

The approach of the U.S., in turn, while taking on strategic dimensions, disregards the root causes of the Afghanistan conflict and is centered on achieving short-run results while abandoning a long-term perspective crucial for the resolution of this conflict.

The wound of Taliban and Talibanism in Afghanistan, unfortunately, is going to fester for many more years and no end to it is foreseeable. Addressing the root causes of this phenomenon is taking only scant attention and this is, by far, the greatest obstacle to resolving the conflict in Afghanistan.  

Apart from the challenge of Taliban, the continued political as well as the governance crisis in Afghanistan are problems that will only get further complicated in the coming years. The 2014 and the question of transition of power from the current president to a new one is itself a major challenge.

As it was the case during the previous parliamentary and presidential elections, the government of Afghanistan will be in charge of conducting the elections. Whether or not the government will be able to pull off a smooth electoral process is an open question. It is a strong possibility that the next presidential elections might also get mired in controversies as the previous one. That will open the floodgates of yet further instability.