The Taliban were underestimated by US and its allies ten years back and they came back as a strong force against NATO. They are being underestimated today by the Afghan government and the international community. Taliban will never embrace the current government structure in Afghanistan but are committed to destroy it. They are waiting for the right time.

When in late 2001, the US invaded Afghanistan to avenge the death of thousands of its citizens who lost their lives in 9/11 al-Qaida attacks, Taliban realized that they had burnt their own finger by providing safe haven to Osama bin Laden and his fighters.

As a result of the invasion, Taliban's government was toppled for which Mullah Omar must be regretting till now. Afghans got rid of Taliban and with that they thought a new window of peace, prosperity has opened for them as the world came to support them so that they can stand on their own feet.

Nonetheless, the Taliban, after a short rest in the neighboring countries, returned with new strategy of war that includes tactics such as guerilla attacks, suicide bombing, planting IEDs and target killing. Hence, the violence continued to multiply causing military and civilian deaths to mount with the passage of each year.

The development and reconstruction activities were hampered and drug trafficking – used by Taliban as a major source of fund – escalated. Today, terrorism from Afghanistan and Pakistan – the countries where safe hideouts of Taliban are believed to be present – is posing serious threats to the security of the region and the world, in addition to their own stability.

Now, as the US and its allies have already planned to withdraw their combat forces from Afghanistan by 2014, more emphasis and attention are being given to resolve the Afghan war through table talks with Taliban. And with that, the ball has fallen in the court of Taliban.

More than a decade of Afghan war has past. Since 2006, the Taliban have successfully regrouped and reorganized their fighters giving a very tough time to international troops in Afghanistan. The Taliban have extended their operations from south to north and other peaceful regions of the country.

Both sides of the Durand line serve as terrorists' epicenter for recruitment of new people and their training. After ten years of fight aimed at eliminating Taliban, the key is still in Taliban's hand. Karzai calls them his brother and the US says that they are not its enemy. This should be counted as a success for Taliban.

Amid all optimism of US and Afghan authorities on the improvement in security condition in Afghanistan, the Taliban have continuously launched attacks taking lives of Afghan security forces, NATO service members and civilians.

When military deaths and civilian deaths are occurring on daily basis, high-profile authorities are under serious security threats and Taliban's sympathizers in Afghan security forces launch attacks on foreign soldiers and mentors then talking of progress in Afghanistan is no more than a tale of futility.

If security is, somehow, better in a particular region due to deployment of heavy number of security forces, it should not be deemed a success against Taliban. Lowest level of security prevails in a significant number of provinces of Afghanistan.

Although the US and Afghan military authorities claim that the Taliban are now weak, suicide bombing, IED attacks, targeted killings and other forms of terrorism go on almost on daily basis in Afghanistan. Security condition is becoming more horrific with each passing year.

As the 2014 – when the US troops are set to withdraw completely from Afghanistan – nears, fears regarding the future security of Afghanistan continue to grow. No doubt Afghan national army and police have nurtured well but one must not forget that the Taliban are still potent.

The Afghan security forces have still a long way to go to defend Afghanistan on their own. They would need more training, weapons, war crafts, technology and consistent investment. Reaching the point where our soldiers are standing today has been made possible by the international community's financial and non-financial support in the last decade.

Nonetheless, once all the international forces are out of Afghanistan, the level of the fund Afghanistan is receiving at current would not remain as is and is subject to diminish. It is not yet clear how will the US persuade its allies to fund Afghan forces over a long term in the upcoming Chicago conference. Therefore, the big question, "Will Afghan army and police be able to stand against enemies after 2014?" is hard to answer and has increased concerns among Afghans.

As we are moving ahead, we should expect more attacks from Taliban and such attacks wash away the possibility of any immediate solution to the war in Afghanistan. With all the fuss about deal with Taliban, there is no need to be overly optimistic.

Past experience shows that Taliban are rigid to solving issues through negotiations. In 90's, when Taliban entered Afghanistan, they betrayed certain Jihadi leaders by inviting them to negotiation tables. All those invitations proved to be traps to kill and capture leaders who opposed them.

In the last two years too, they have played certain tricks with Mr. Karzai. In 2010, a man who introduced himself as Taliban's representative turned out to a shopkeeper after looting funds set for reconciliation process. Last year, a man who called himself Taliban's messenger was actually a suicide bomber and assassinated Karzai's peace envy, Burhan-ud-Din Rabbani.

The Taliban should neither be under-estimated by Hamid Karzai government nor by its international backers. They should not deceive themselves by believing that the Taliban would one day lay down arms and embrace the prevailing democratic system of Afghanistan. Taliban are waiting for the right time and the right time is when all foreign forces are out of Afghanistan.