Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Saturday, May 4th, 2024

Are People Unreasonably Worried?

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Are People  Unreasonably Worried?

No matter how strong the international community's message be of not leaving Afghanistan into the hands of mercy of the time, but set deadline for complete military withdrawal has already imposed profound implications on the economy. Some talk in a manner as if cash downpour has come to an end and the economic activities have become stagnant. Entrepreneurs and wealthy people are not daring to invest and thus keep their money somewhere safe. People have set eyes on the deadline for foreign military withdrawal—2014—and looking forward what will happen thereafter.

People are worried about the prospective of security situation; and, indeed, the number (2014) has changed into a relative magical number. People are waiting to see will Taliban overrule the Kabul government simultaneous or subsequent to foreign military withdrawal? Many are in view that if Taliban-led militants fail to capture the country once again in the very lack of international security forces, they will not succeed thereafter.

It should be noticed that people have high confidence on the capacity of Afghan security forces, as young generation upload photos of police and soldiers in their facebook, twitter and other social networking websites as icon of bravery and courageousness.

Presently, there are more than 200,000 armed and partly trained forces against not more 30,000 militias! Does not it look ridiculous to be worried that 200,000 Afghan security forces cannot stand 30,000 Taliban militias? Certainly, what is worrisome has nothing to do with the power and capacity of Afghan forces, because it is clear that they can stand Taliban militias anytime and anywhere.

They are able to rub the noses of Taliban militants. Along with incomparable quantity against Taliban they have the support of people as well as the support of the international community that will definitely remain committed to pour cash and weapons. It is not some empty claims. In the United States, both Republican and Democratic political parties clearly voiced their commitment towards the country and promised not to allow once again that Afghanistan changes into a safe-haven for Taliban and its al-Qaeda ally. Similarly, the international community as a whole has similar position. It spent billions of dollars and made huge sacrifices.

Even key global players have differences with the NATO in general and the United States in particular though they favor a peaceful Afghanistan instead of crisis-riddled once. Russia suffers from Chechen Islamists. The natural and mineral resources of the country are of great interest to booming China's economy. It has already invested millions of dollars and will invest remarkably in infrastructures according to Beijing officials in upcoming years.

In the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organization conference (SCO) held in June in China, Afghanistan was accepted as its new permanent member, and its two key members—China and Russia—emphasized on economic commitment to the country. The acceptance of Afghanistan as member of the SCO was completely unexpected and experts deemed it as a biggest achievement for Kabul.

The issue was also found profound coverage in national and international press and analysts wrote that vast natural resources of the country likely was a key factor in getting the attention of Moscow and Beijing. China and Russia are of great importance to the country and can play highly influential role in restoration of peace and instability.

Investment by China and Russia, on one hand, can be viewed as first step towards economic prosperity, on the other hand, as guarantee for political stability. Because both countries can weigh to pressurize countries which intend to play evil.

Same is the case with Islamic Republic and influential neighbor in the west. However, there are reports about links of Tehran and Taliban, but if there are something like that than that is also merely due to its antagonism with United States. Taliban and Islamic republic have fundamental problem and their cooperation, if ever exists, is not sustainable. During its rule, Taliban killed 16 Iranian diplomats in Mazar-e-Sharif and angered Tehran to a level that it was preparing for an attack.

Furthermore, Needless to say, a Shiite Iran is really hard, if not impossible to build a friendly relation with Taliban whose core establishment is formed of Wahabists, who do not recognize Shiite as part of Islam. Taliban has major problem with Shiite branch of Islam. For instance, Hazara community, major part of which is Shia, was butchered during Taliban regime. No doubt, other ethnic groups also suffered but the blow dealt Hazara community was incomparable. So, it is obvious that Tehran will never try to help Taliban resume power in the country, because of its historical and ideological differences.

So, clearly with such global prevalent anti-Taliban and al-Qaeda sentiments, the Afghan government will get huge support to resist against Taliban and prevent them to re-establish the so-called Emarat-e-Islami, the notion which is based on the ideology of political Islam.

So, with the above calculation, you may get a sense that wariness of Afghan people is absolutely illogical and unreasonable. The nightmare of re-emergence of Taliban is also unjustifiable. But I think people are right to be worried about the future. Why? Because of the following reasons; the nation building project has remained unsuccessful.

The communal sensitivity has remained too strong and overshadows the national feeling. The standing of top government has further complicated the situation as those people who have been indulged in bloodsheds and killed tens of thousands of people are labeled as "dissent brothers".

Those who are willing to bring Taliban militants into the government are not unremarkable. The thing which fuels constant wariness and will be, probably, an existential threat to the government is communal differences.

It is not impossible that after foreign military withdrawal, Afghan security forces, instead of fighting terrorism and insurgents, take communal position and pave the way for reemergence of Taliban. During past few years, we have witnessed number of incidents in which Afghan security forces turned their arms against foreign fellows or switched sides. So, if Afghan officials do not draw a bold line between enemies and friends, and the security forces do not have a cause to fight for, the alert of Taliban retaking the power will always ring.

Masood Korosh is the permanent writer of Daily Outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at outlookafghanistan@gmial.com

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