Many important political developments have happened in Afghanistan since 2002, changing inter alia the country's political landscape, governance and socio-cultural outlooks. Afghanistan has had a democratic constitution, two rounds of parliamentary elections, two presidential elections as well as elected local councils. And billions of dollars of investment into infrastructure development in education, health care, agriculture and irrigation, among others.

These landmark achievements have created an enabling environment for education for all, freedom of expression, human rights, development of a vibrant civil society and the private sector.
A failed political transition will undo all and plunge the country into an irreversible chaos.

The political transition in 2014 is going to be an epoch making historical event with long term political, security and development ramifications for the country. It will not only bring a new face to presidential palace in Kabul, it will also be a test for a decade long democracy and will determine the future course of politics and governance in the country.

Our history bears witness to bloody political transitions and transfers of power from one person to the next and from one regime to another. Afghanistan has seldom experienced peaceful political transitions. And it has never been democratic. This will be the first time Afghanistan will go through, hopefully, a political transition that is democratically conditioned.

Furthermore, the transfer of power to a next president at this historical juncture is important for other reasons too. Afghanistan is going through very hard times and cannot stand and afford a failed political transition, particularly, when all Afghans have pinned their hopes for future peace and stability to it.

A successful and peaceful transfer of power to the next president in 2014 will depend on three main factors: The government, the opposition parties and the international community.

The government plays the key role in holding a peaceful election and political transition as it controls the machinery and institutions responsible for the job. The election has to take place. Its cancellation or postponement will be tantamount to a coup and will provoke reactions beyond government means and control.

Security could not be an excuse for not holding the 2014 election too, as the last elections were held under the same or even worst security circumstances. Now there are stronger government institutions, better experience and more security forces.

The government has to submit to the will of the people. The people want to see a departure from a family and dynastic rule, even if it comes through democratic elections. Gaining people's trust in the political system is need of the hour and critical for security and stability. This can be ensured only through a genuine political transition that requires political sacrifice from the people at the helm of power and the opposition.

The political personnel owe a big political sacrifice to the people of Afghanistan, as the people have sacrificed their lives in defense of the country in the past ten years. Thousands of security personnel and ordinary men and women and children including teachers, civil servants and tribal elders have died in hope of a stable country and stability for the future generations. The political transition will determine the future for the Afghan children. The onus of bringing peace, development and prosperity now depends on the Afghan politicians both in the government and outside of it.

The opposition parties have their own roles to play in the political transition. They could mobilize in support of a peaceful election and political transition. However, they internally and politically face formidable challenges that prevent them from forming a solid block against the government candidate.

It is important to note that the opposition politics in Afghanistan is still in the making. That is why the so-called opposition parties suffer from lack of politics. They are void of a political vision, platform, culture and convincing programs and ideas for dealing with the challenges faced by the country including insurgency, corruption, and poverty, among others.

The pursuit of changing the political system would be counterproductive. Splitting the executive authority between a president and a prime minister will lead to further erosion of government authority and will result into a paralyzed administration.

Therefore, for the above reasons and other reasons explained below, there is a sense of danger in the approach of the opposition parties to politics. Also, they are bent on performing strong in the coming election without having the necessary preconditions and prerequisites.

The numerous political parties espouse divergent and opposing political ideologies and orientations. They have fought against each other and their commitment to the opposition coalition is doubtful. They wouldn't trust each other and are not sure of staying in the coalition as has been proved in the past.

Most of the opposition figures have held high official positions in the government that they oppose and deride now. People know them. And they stand little chance of winning in a character contest against those in the government.

Furthermore, the opposition parties are using the ethnic and tribal cards that are not appealing to most people anymore, as it is fraught with danger and will lead to further instability. In comparison, the government is ethnically more representative in form and substance.

Given their desperate situation, the opposition could play a destabilizing role in the political transition. Their issuance of threats if they do not win and creation of doubts in the transparency of the coming election fuels political tensions that will further engender divisions at all levels of society.

The opposition parties must know that they have a moral responsibility towards the nation, and have to play a constructive role in the coming election. It is their country too. They are responsible for developing an opposition political culture that yields stability and not violence. In the shape that they are now, the opposition should give up any unrealistic expectation, and play their part in the country's young democracy and leave a positive legacy of political opposition to the future generations.

The international community has become part of the political process in Afghanistan. They have provided institutional, financial and political support to the political process from the start in 2002. The entire election process depends for its operation and transparency, to some extent, on the support of the international community. Their withdrawal of support at any level will impede the political process they have created and will lead to a failed political transition.

Most importantly, the international community couldn't be neutral in the political process due to its heavy and deep involvement in security, development and regional politics. Therefore, the objectivity of the international community this time around in the political process is crucial for a successful political transition. We cannot run away from the truth that the international community in Afghanistan is also divided on the shape and type of future government to come in Afghanistan and each troops contributing country has its own way of looking at the happenings in the country.

A unity of vision by all players is indispensable for a successful political transition that will save the decade long investments and sacrifices made by Afghans and the international community for peace and democracy.