"The price of one AK-47 has gone up to $1000. People are well prepared." These were words of Ahmad Zia Massoud in a recent interview with Reuters alarming about a civil war if the 2014 power transition in Kabul does not happen in a smooth and transparent process. Similar remarks were made by a strongman of the West, Ismail Khan urging his followers to arm themselves up for post-2014 fight with Taliban.
Some analysts call it empty political statements to remain relevant in the sensational popular media sloganeering or to put pressure on the Karzai Administration and international community regarding the upcoming presidential polls. But things are much more than that. It's for the first time that former Northern Alliance leaders are making such public statements. Rumors of the 'preparations' in the North and Central Highlands for post-2014 has been making the rounds in private discussions of some political circles in Kabul since last year. Former strongmen are said to be mobilizing their networks of commanders of the civil war and Taliban era. General Abdul Rashid Dostum has been in his hometown of Shibirghan for longer period this year than anytime during the last decade.
Apart from the 2014 power-transfer related concerns, there are other reasons behind the increasing pessimist and bitter calls such as that of Ahmad Zia Massoud. The strongest of opposition groups, National Front of Ahmad Zia Massoud, Dostum and Muhaqiq staged some unprecedented and largest political rallies in the North this year. However, their positive political peaceful mass mobilization was met with the current Administration's malign of a smear campaign. They labeled General Dostum as a "national traitor" creating hurdles against Chinese workers of the oil exploration site in North. The project was jointly awarded to a Chinese state-owned company and an Afghan company owned by President Karzai's cousins.
The murder of Dostum-ally MP and Uzbek tribal leader Ahmad Khan Samangani raised doubts of the Front leaders. Another leader of the party, Muhammad Muhaqiq was attacked in Bamyan during a visit to speak to a mass gathering, for which he blamed "Government circles".
When Front leaders called for decentralization of power and rallied popular mass mobilization, the Government media machinery equaled calls for decentralization of power with disintegration of the country. Met with such a negative malign campaign against their peaceful political rallies, something we rarely had in the past, opposition leaders are still concerned for smooth power transfer, now calling the transparency of 2014 polls a melting point for Afghanistan—either we move on with the current process of dependence on foreign aid, slow governance improvement and the challenge of Taliban insurgency or descend into chaos and eventual civil war.
Though the Independent Election Commission announced April 05, 2014 for the Presidential polls, concerns remain high. For instance, President Karzai has repeatedly opposed the parliament proposal of including two UN representatives in the Electoral Complaints Commission, a popular demand supported by all opposition groups. He is going to reject the important draft Law on Composition, Duties and Mandate of Independent Election Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission. The National Assembly approved the draft law on September 24, 2012. It has been one of the most significant legislative developments this year. Majority of MPs supported inclusion of two representatives of the United Nations as temporary members of the Electoral Complaints Commission. Only 5 votes came against it, despite the fact that the Palace has a large number of supporters inside the parliament.
MPs have repeatedly asked the Government to submit the draft Electoral Law to the parliament for approval, but there is an intentional delay tactic. Lawmakers have threatened to produce their legislation if the draft law was not sent to the parliament soon.
Apart from that, even the election date has been met with critical reactions from opposition saying there will be low-turnout due to winter. Though it will be already spring by April, but in many parts of the North and Hazarajat, it would still be extremely cold making it hard for campaign. Abdullah Abdullah's National Coalition has demanded a change in the date.
The criticisms inside parliament and from political parties show the lack of coordination and consultation exercised by the Election Commission in the process. When IEC Chief Fazal Ahmad Manawi was asked about the problems of weather for the polling date, he said it was not their job to take care of nature and constitution did not mention such a thing. The April 05 date was announced in a hurry after increasing opposition pressure, thus without proper consultation with political parties, the elected representatives of people and civil society.
National Coalition leader Dr. Abdullah Abdullah was saying President Karzai's opposition of foreigners in ECC is an attempt to hijack the 2014 polls. He said presence of foreigners had boosted the credibility of past elections in the eyes of world and the Afghans alike. He added that the Government was trying to cement its grip on the ECC to influence poll results by excluding foreigners.
President Karzai needs to assure the opposition in a process of inclusive decision making on issues related to electoral laws to avoid a controversial situation ahead, otherwise the doom predictions for Afghanistan after 2014 would become reality.