According to reports, the confidence of Russia, a key supporter of President Assad’s regime, is watching the successive advance of Syrian rebels towards the heart of Damascus which was seen as impenetrable stronghold of the regime. It has sent warships to the Mediterranean to prepare a potential evacuation of its citizens from the country which shows that Moscow officials have reached to conclusion that their close ally President Assad will not be able to deal with spiraling pressure and dilemma of rebels.
Ostensibly the decision was made after insurgents seized the Yarmouk Palestinian camp just two miles away from the heart of Damascus. Does it mean the situation is getting tougher for President Assad?
However, the tight control of news agency and lack of foreign journalists in the country puts the authenticity of reports flows in the darkness but no doubt armed oppositions have found momentum. Certainly, the Syrian rebels were largely supported when they marched into streets and chanted for political and economic reform.
The response was persecution and crackdown because President Assad knew that showing any flexibility against protestors would set him in a weaker position similar to ousted counterparts like Hosni Mobarak of Egypt and Bu Ali of Tunisia. Thus, from the very start he tried to practice anew and show that he would not tolerate uprising which might bring the chain of control out of his hand.
Thus, when the uprising started 21 months ago, it got the global attention and nations voiced support to demonstrators. Moreover, the time was ripe and much exposed to change, because the wave of the so-called spring was tough enough to challenge the pillars of all regional authoritarian regimes. From the very start, the regime responded with clenched fist and branded them as terrorists. The regime showed no flexibility against demonstrators and used all its force to suppress them.
The situation became gruesomely dangerous when the international community failed to form a joint front against Damascus. Drafts prepared mostly by European countries for tougher action two times were vetoed in the United Nations Security Council by China and Russia which feared about the consequences.
Both countries have continued their support and banned the approval of any tough resolution against the country during last 21 months of civil uprising. Another issue is the regional rivalry.
The regional rivalry among countries is also something that cannot be neglected assessing the ongoing situation in Syria. Tehran has been supporting President since the very start of civil uprising. The supreme leader who is the ultimate decision maker in the country, Ayatollah Ali Khamenae often openly voiced out support for Damascus regime while condemning other regimes reacted similarly in the case of uprising breakout. While insisting that Arab countries are affected by more than 30-years old Islamic revolution in Iran, he links civil unrest in Syria to foreign intervention.
Therefore, the so-called proxy war and the dominant presence of Allawites, a minor who can hardly be branded as part of Shiite group, have further complicated the situation.
Considering the above issue, it has been almost two years that none of the fronts has yet overruled the other and thus violence increased tremendously, as human rights organizations confirmed around 40000 deaths since the start of uprising.
The continuation of armed struggle led to hue and crime, violence and crimes committed by both sides. Suicide bombings which target government officials and administration offices have been high success, which are clear signs that their country is pushed into civil war. Such incidents also decreased the willingness of Western nations from their support and also reflected a bad face of rebels. But the situation differs. Rebels have got successive victories in the military and diplomatic spheres.
They have come together and formed a united group against the government. Such coalition has motivated Western and Arab countries once again to pour cash and arms and support to rebels to end the 40 years old rule of Assad regime.
The foreign support and assistance has enabled rebels to post significant military and diplomatic gains in recent weeks, capturing a series of army installations across Syria and securing formal recognition from Western and Arab states for its new coalition.
Assad’s pivotal allies have largely stood behind him. But Russia, his main arms supplier, appeared to waver this week with contradictory statements repeating opposition to Assad stepping down and airing concerns about a possible rebel victory.
In Damascus, activists reported overnight explosions and early morning sniper fire around the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk. The Yarmouk and Palestine refugee “camps” are actually densely populated urban districts home to thousands of impoverished Palestinian refugees and Syrians. ”Strategically, this site is very important because it is one of the best doors into central Damascus. The regime normally does not fight to regain areas captured anymore because its forces have been drained. But I think they could see Yarmouk as a red line and fight back fiercely.”
Syria hosts half a million of Palestinian refugees, most living in Yarmouk, descendants of those admitted after the creation of Israel in 1948, and has always called itself as a champion of the Palestinian struggle, sponsoring several guerrilla factions. Definitely, the movement of Russian warships to be ready for quick and mass evacuation of its citizens from the country means that President Assad’s power is dwindling down. It has also reached to conclusion that determined Arab and Western countries will not leave the rebels and will support till they end the rule of Assad Family. Though the government still seems strong, but rebels are increasingly on rise.