After coming from Washington, President Karzai has said he will call a Loya Jirga to decide on the matter of legal immunity for the US troops to remain after 2014. It was an ‘achievement’ brought home, while the unrealistic demands of military gear for Afghan Air Force were turned down by President Obama. In his public statements, and the joint press talk at White House, President Karzai followed the wisdom of his Hizbi Chief of Staff who, before departure to DC, had said, “The West needs us more than we need them.” One wonders which world they live in. When our leaders do not show strong interest for strong number of American troops needed to stay in Afghanistan after 2014 to prevent our descent into chaos, it puts President Obama under pressure at home justifying his decision to keep the US forces.

There was no discussion about the plans of Obama Administration to heavily downsize the Afghan National Security Forces. The decision to cut number of ANSF from 350,000 to 230,000 by 2015 seems to be firm.  Maintaining the reduced size of ANSF has an estimated $4.2billion annual cost, which the US and NATO allies have pledged to support. The Karzai Administration seems to be unbothered about such a critical decision. The downsizing plan is a conceptual model based on assumptions such as improved security and a possible deal with Taliban militants, which are uncertain. Laying off over 120,000 well-trained combat veterans in 2015 in a dim job market could cause more of security risk, than the current calculations. After the withdrawal of bulk of US troops by 2014, the cost of war in Afghanistan will be reduced heavily, and the Obama Administration’s plan to cut strength of ANSF does not make sense.

President Karzai says number of American troops is not an important matter. Reports in Washington press indicate that the Obama Administration wants as low as 3000 troops, while American military commanders have proposed between 9000 to 15000 troops. With the 3000 figure, such a small number cannot even conduct an effective drone operations against militant hideouts or if there is any major threat. How will they continue the training programs for ANSF with 3000 troops remaining?

Besides the fact that nothing could be achieved of the Washington trip except giving the American press pushing for a full withdrawal more reasons, it rather brought another opportunity of political manipulation at home—the farce of another Loya Jirga. 

Just before going to DC trip, the Government officials celebrated the week of constitution. Loya Jirgaism is not only utter disregard for democratic institutions; it is also violation of the constitution.

The Constitution has one whole chapter (6) titled ‘the Loya Jirga’, in which, Article 110 says, “Loya Jirga is the highest manifestation of the people of Afghanistan. It consists of the following:

• Members of the National Assembly [Lower House and Senate]
• Chairpersons of the Provincial and district councils
• Cabinet members, Chief Justice and members of the Supreme Court (without voting rights)

The decisions of such constitutional Loya Jirga become law. But the current administration is very innovative with political manipulation. The tradition of patronage politics that has now become structure of our system ensures that it will take another generation to establish culture of merit and performance. The innovation to play with the above constitutional provision has been the ‘consultative’ or ‘traditional’ Loya Jirgas without any legal authority. It creates confusion among ordinary people about the legal essence of Loya Jirga, but who cares about long-term implications of such maneuvering?  It has become a joke. There have been more such Jirgas during last ten years than the era from Amanullah to Zahir Shah.

Millions are spent on one such event, calling more than 2000 ‘tribal chiefs’ and ‘elders’ from around the country. They get briefed about agenda of the Jirga just a day before inauguration. It is more an exercise of political patronage to keep the countryside tribal network of supporters happy as well as get approved agendas which need to go through parliament. The traditional and consultative Loya Jirgas have become a parallel institution against the parliament. So much for rule of law and constitution!

The so-called Traditional Loya Jirga held earlier ‘approved’ the Strategic Partnership Agreement which included issue of immunity for troops. There is no need to waste time and money for another round of stage show of political manipulation.

We have a parliament, Lower House and House of Elders, (Wolesi Jirga and Mesharano Jirga), why is the President preferring a gathering of handpicked tribal ‘elders’ over the elected representatives of masses? Constitutionally, it will have to be the parliament to approve any such national decision.

Both houses of the parliament have already approved the overall outline of the Strategic Partnership Agreement which covers the issue of immunity for US troops to remain after 2014.

Political parties have already opposed any such event. Now the parliament may boycott the call for Loya Jirga and issue an official opposition soon. Such moves are autocratic, reviving the structures of monarchy. It will continue as long as there is not strong reaction from political parties, parliament and the civil society.