Editor in Chief: Moh. Reza Huwaida Thursday, May 2nd, 2024

The Weariness of the War

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The Weariness of the War

The weariness of the war in Afghanistan is really becoming evident with each passing day. The most can be seen within the attitude of decision makers and troops of international community engaged in Afghanistan. Most of them believe that earlier withdrawal would help their countries extract themselves out of the situation in Afghanistan, which would be a better approach for pacifying the growing anti-involvement public opinion and better future of Afghanistan; however, it is not sure whether the later objective would be achieved. But does it really matter for them?

They say "YES" and they try to show that they will remain committed to supporting Afghanistan in so many ways but the irony is that their priorities are suggesting otherwise. At the same time, it should also be mentioned that the most Afghanistan needs today is related to its security; once its security is guaranteed, international community can support it in many other ways.

Keeping in mind the history and socio-political scenario in Afghanistan, one can conclude that the current relative stability has been earned after a lot of hard work. So, it must be cared for and all the indications of worsening of situation in the country must be dealt with, seriously.

In the ongoing transition period there are indications that the situation may get worse if not handled differently which must be considered as harbinger of decisive changes in near future and appropriate measures must be carried out to guide them towards better destinations. Currently, the security situation in Afghanistan is shaky and the example of current assaults in the capital Kabul; their magnitude and impacts, leaves no doubt about it.

When the analysts see that even the capital Kabul is not safe and terrorists can target even the safest of the areas with the greatest comfort, they really worry about the post-withdrawal scenario. Insecurity has been one of the major problems Afghanistan has been facing for the last few decades and if there are numerous other problems in the country most of them can be associated with this basic problem.

The situation of peace and tranquility in Afghanistan and withdrawal of international troops are important matters regarding the future of Afghanistan. Though the entire peace and tranquility cannot be thought of being based on the international troops yet it would be of great importance for Afghanistan's future strategy for security if it is confirmed that when and how international forces withdraw from the country.

On the other hand it has its own disadvantages. Afghanistan's capacity has not been mature enough to guarantee security of entire country on its own; it would need support, assistance and equipment from the international community at least for another decade.

Afghan security forces do not, at least with current level of training and equipment, suffice to shoulder the security responsibilities on their own with security challenges rising with each passing day. US, earlier, announced that US troops would be withdrawn completely from Afghanistan till 2014; however, that announcement has been controversial since its very pronouncement.

Moreover, there have been indications every now and then that further haste may be introduced in the schedule. Apart from US, some other countries are also considering withdrawing forces earlier. There have been indications that Australian troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by the middle of 2013, which is a year earlier than the scheduled time. There are about 1,550 Australian troops involved in Afghanistan that does not depict a very large number but would have impact on the overall security scenario in the country.

There have been decisions by different countries to have earlier withdrawal in recent times. France has already withdrawn most of their troops and there is pressure on other NATO countries to make withdrawal hastier.

Though the countries have made commitments that they would not leave Afghanistan alone after 2014 and would continue their support in different fields and in various ways, the insecurity threat that may erupt after the withdrawal may raise some serious security concerns which would never allow developments in other fields and in other ways.

It should be noted that urgency shown by involved countries in Afghanistan is also because of some recent incidents that resulted in the death of foreign troops by their Afghan counterparts or their juniors. Moreover, there have been certain incidents that have also shown a growing frustration in foreign troops fighting in Afghanistan.

In fact, the overall Afghan war is becoming very much notorious and the involved countries want to get out of it so as to remain undisturbed by its ugliness; but without keeping in mind that the future may make them more notorious if the result of the war turns out to be uglier.

On the other hand, US that has been leading the war, seems to finalize the so-called "End Game" in Afghanistan. It has been striving to reach to certain conclusions before withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan completely. However, it should be noted that a certain level of haste has been displayed by US in this regard.

It earnestly wants to reach to an agreement with Taliban and decide a strategic deal with Afghan government before the withdrawal. It has also shown optimism about the state of affairs in Afghanistan and the training of Afghan security forces. However, too much optimism in this regard is not justified at all and the current incidents will support the argument. The fact is the negotiation efforts with Taliban are not on the right track and influential outcomes are not expected soon. The need of the time is to see the situation as it stands; to analyze the scenario objectively and to call a spade a spade.

The unilateral and strict withdrawal schedules can never help the war against terrorism and may have severe consequences on the Afghan security situation. US and NATO must develop coordination with the involved countries and must reach to unanimous decision but at the same time it is important that the withdrawal process should be made carefully and should be able to compensate for the challenges of the objective conditions. Urgency in this regard may not help the situation at all

Dilawar Sherzai is the permanent writer of the Daily outlook Afghanistan. He can be reached at dilawar.sherzai@gmail.com

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