Different people seem to have different opinion regarding the post-withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan. There are certain people who are optimistic about the situation and believe that things may get better and there are many others who doubt improvements in the socio-political scenario. However, the degree of uncertainties is very high among the common people regarding the future of Afghanistan.

On Saturday, February 09, General John Allen, the outgoing chief US commander in Afghanistan, in one of his interviews, said that the uncertainty of the Afghan people about their future is his biggest concern as he leaves after 19 months leading the military forces fighting insurgency in Afghanistan. When he was asked about his concerns he said, "My biggest concern? It is uncertainty… There is uncertainty right now because we are still in a conflict. And yes, there is uncertainty because we haven't achieved all we would like to achieve in terms of governmental capacity and countering corruption."

The contemporary socio-political scenario in Afghanistan and the future of affairs seem to be going through a very foggy atmosphere. Nothing seems to be getting clear and evident. The ambiguities are casting a very dark shadow that is incapacitating the vision to see the destination. The deadline for withdrawal is getting closer with each passing day and the issues do not seem to be getting solved. The negotiations with Taliban in Qatar and elsewhere do not seem to be producing tangible outcomes and Afghan security arrangements are not mature enough to guarantee security completely and if all these arrangements fail in the country, it would not take long that all the efforts that have been made to make Afghanistan prosper may be undone.

However, General John Allen also showed some optimism and mentioned that there have been changes and they have to be cared for if the country is to be successful in facing challenges.

He said, "To be associated in any way with an outcome that can improve [Afghans'] lives and give Afghanistan a hope has been a great honor for me… The Afghan people need to take stock of how far they have come in the last 11 years. The difference between 2001 and 2013 is so dramatic it's almost breathtaking. But that only is the beginning in my mind of where Afghanistan can go… And yes, there have been challenges. I believe the campaign in itself has made great accomplishments in terms of moving Afghanistan towards a more secure and ultimately a stable society. Within that period of time there have been occasions where I have gone to see families, where I have gone to see the president, I have spoken with leaders in your government during some of those difficult times and I have apologized to the Afghan people for our actions. None of those actions were ever undertaken intentionally, where we have inflicted harm, where we have created tragedy.”

However, it is also a fact that the international community involved in Afghanistan seems to be tired of the ongoing situation. The weariness of the war is really becoming evident with each passing day. The most can be seen within the attitude of decision makers and troops of international community engaged in Afghanistan. Most of them believe that earlier withdrawal would help their countries extract themselves out of the situation in Afghanistan, which would be a better approach for pacifying the growing anti-involvement public opinion and better future of Afghanistan; however, it is not sure whether the later objective would be achieved. But does it really matter for them? They claim that it does matter and they try to show that they will remain committed to supporting Afghanistan in so many ways but the irony is that their priorities are suggesting otherwise. At the same time, it should also be mentioned that the most Afghanistan needs today is related to its security; once its security is guaranteed, international community can support it in many other ways.

Keeping in mind the history and socio-political scenario in Afghanistan, one can conclude that the current relative stability has been earned after a lot of hard work. So, it must be cared for and all the indications of worsening of situation in the country must be dealt with, seriously. In the ongoing transition period there are indications that the situation may get serious if not handled differently which must be considered as harbinger of decisive changes in near future and appropriate measures must be carried out to guide them towards better destinations. Currently, the security situation in Afghanistan is shaky and the example of current assaults in the capital Kabul; their magnitude and impacts, leaves no doubt about it.

Nevertheless, John Allen praised the progress of the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF). He mentioned, "Multiple threat streams are coming at Kabul every single day – 365 days a year. That the fact there aren't attacks every single day is a direct reason and a derivative of the fact that the Afghan National Security Forces are in fact doing their job so well. Now, there is the old saying that we have to be right every time; they only have to be right once… I think the Taliban recognize that they're going to need to determine whether this Afghan National Security Force has credibility. So we should anticipate the Taliban are going to come at the Afghan National Security Forces. I absolutely believe that they can handle it. They handled it last year, they are handling now and they are getting better every day."

But when the analysts see that even the capital Kabul is not safe and terrorists can target even the safest of the areas with the greatest comfort, they really worry about the post-withdrawal scenario. Insecurity has been one of the major problems Afghanistan has been facing for the last few decades and if there are numerous other problems in the country most of them can be associated with this basic problem. The situation of peace and tranquility in Afghanistan and withdrawal of international troops are important matters regarding the future of Afghanistan. Though the entire peace and tranquility cannot be thought of being based on the international troops yet it would be of great importance for Afghanistan's future strategy for security if it is confirmed that when and how international forces withdraw from the country and how Afghan forces replace them and how Afghan authorities would handle the reconciliation process with Taliban. Another important factor would be the political development in the country and the evolution towards a democratic system.