Afghan government is seriously worried about the rise of poppy cultivation due to possible free-fall of determination to fight this evil phenomenon after 2014.  Baz Mohammad Ahmadi, Deputy to Ministry of Interior (MOI), on Saturday voiced out concern about the prospective of combating poppy cultivation and drug-trafficking when foreign countries pull out their security forces.  In a press conference, he told to journalist that the support of international community for the struggle might drop visibly after their military withdrawal.

He also added that foreign security forces have been directly involved in the struggle against poppy cultivation and drug-trafficking while Afghan National Force might not do so. “Without serious fighting poppy cultivation, opium production and drug trafficking will increase tremendously”.

He also briefly talked about anti-drug combat, saying 32000 operations held, 469 tons of various kinds of drugs seized, and 231 people, including 19 foreign citizens, arrested during last Islamic Solar Calendar. Previously, the Ministry of Counter Narcotics announced that overall value of drug-business has reached to 70 billion dollars annually, major part of which flows down to the pocket of international mafia.

Now with a very unprofessional mathematical estimate, drug exported and opium products inside the country have reached to a staggering level.
469 tons of drugs seized and the annual drug business has reached to 72 billion dollars! The amount is more the 10 times of the entire government budget for a year and 4.5 times of the entire amount of money promised to the country in Tokyo conference. In other words, if two percent of the drug-business revenue end up to pockets of militants which is more than $1 billion, perhaps, it would be enough amount to finance their activities for a year.

From another angle and according to Deputy to Ministry of Interior, Baz Mohammad Ahmadi, 32 thousand operations held during a year! If each operation cost only 100,000 Afghani, the total cost goes up to 3,200,000,000 (3.2 billion) Afghani! Can Afghan government ever afford the amount of money to combat poppy cultivation and drug trafficking? Moreover, the experience during last 11 years shows that struggle against drugs was not successful at all. The amount of poppy production has decreased visibly and drug trafficking rather show astonishing rise.

The question is what will happen if the determination of foreign allies diminishes? Perhaps, there are all signs that much of such determination has already decreased to a level.

It is certain that the government has always been under pressure to hold serious steps in this regard. It is not clear whether Kabul officials have ever been resolute to eliminate drug from the country or not. Previously, drug trafficking and increasing domestic market

for the product used to be highlighted and the government was also trying to deal with the issue with major support from foreign allies. Presently, attentions have turned to possible break out of instability after 2014. Seemingly, both the issues of widespread corruption and drug have been overshadowed by growing fear of instability. But viewing the issue from positive angle, considering that all those gruesome pictures of instability and violence will not come true and we will have a stable political system, then there will be chance to observe the tragedy that will be caused by growing addiction among Afghan youngsters.

However, there is not exact figure how many people are addicted to certain kinds of drugs, but it is said that millions are suffering. In part of the country, women who do torturing physical work to earn money for survival, they just give drug to their babies in order to make them asleep. So, their children even grow with addiction that day by day their physical condition are getting and worse.

I am not a professional on addiction problems, but it is said that human body finds resistance against the effects of the drug. Day by day, the amount, frequency of use as well as the strength of drug should be increased in order to provide the previous level of satisfaction for the user.

If so, opium users increasingly turn stronger drugs made in labs of other countries. That process, on one hand will cause the flow of money out of the country and on the other hand wash away the strength of youngsters who are believed to make change in the future.

Presently it is viewed that poppy cultivation and drug trafficking indeed benefit Afghans but in the future it might turn upside down. The country may change into a market for global drugs processed inside or outside of the country. Major part of produced drugs may be consumed by Afghan families. Based on figures presented by some organizations, it is said that hundreds of tons of drugs are used across the country annually.

Just walking in Kabul streets, it becomes visible how terrible the situation has already become. There are huge numbers of teenagers who are addicted to different sorts of drugs and left out in the public. Therefore, it is of high importance that government should try alternative policies to tamp the situation. The policies based on giving tribute to those who are engaged in poppy cultivation have bluntly failed.

Such policies only have emboldened them, and in the case of sudden stop to donations, they will once again resume cultivation. The government should encourage people to avoid poppy cultivation through religious scholars or stop them by force. Otherwise, this soft terrorism will be far dangerous than that of Osama and Mullah Omer’s ones. This will annihilate the nation without shedding blood.