As the withdrawing schedule approaches, people are worried about the post 2014 prospective. People are concerned that the military withdrawal maybe the start of renewed civil war and domestic violence.
What gives me queasiness feeling is, of course, violence, bloodshed, bomb explosion, civilian casualties and etc. hundreds of thousands of Afghans might do what I am doing---searching for something among tens of articles about daily murders and killings to find at least few articles about something which let them feel relaxed. They are searching to find some sign of hope to live, which replaces their tears shed during past more than three decades---including the period
of international community involvement---with lively smile.
If you just put a glimpse to printed, electronic as well as online Afghan news agencies then it is understandable what picture people would get from the ongoing economic and socio-political situation.
Every page is filled with pictures of suicidal attack, bomb explosions and smokes raised up to sky due to this and that land and air operations. Among those detailed articles, we hardly find something which forces smile on the lips of suffered Afghans. There are two things that can be assumed: first, there is not anything to discuss without the core and peripheral issues concerned to “counterinsurgency” struggle, second, there are but journalists pay less importance to them or according to them their readers and visitors of the website like more about the military and political issues.
I am not willing to go for analysis of the above two assumptions. What certainly I want to notify that Afghan civil society, in general, is truly concerned about volatility of democratic political establishment and the prospective of ongoing security crisis. Eleven years have passed since the clear-cut military engagement of international community. Each year we have experienced a high degree of violence and intensified clashes between Afghan and foreign security forces against Taliban and its Al-Qaeda ally. But every year people are fooled with illusionary hope and optimism.
Since 2001, the records show that civilian casualties have mounted, which many analysts maintain that spark alienation of people from ongoing procedure and provide unlimited source for Taliban recruitment. The story is quite similar with armies and troops. Both Afghan and international forces have largely suffered. By passing each year, their loss and casualties have spiraled. Every year the casualty is the highest in comparison to previous years. 2010 broke the record of all. Only the casualties of US and NATO forces became 700, which meant that almost two armies were killed on daily basis.
The outlook would be grim and nightmarish if the state of security situation in years ahead be assessed on past tracks or records of military accomplishment. From the very US attack in 2001, hope has been hanging on the baseless promises. But till now, however, we had great move in other spheres, but security has remained still undependable and quite volatile. Previously, the US and NATO top commander, General Patraeus clearly said that spring season in Afghanistan means a resurgence of insurgency.
Howerver, Taliban lost momentum last year, and they would try their most to get their previous dominant position back. The omen is not good then. Thanks god the recent heavy snowfall in Afghanistan has postponed the timetable of upcoming confrontation. By spring melt, violence will start. No doubt, Taliban-led insurgency during winter rest in their safe hideouts has accurately planed their strategy to face Afghan and foreign security forces.
Amidst such difficulties, the US military slow withdrawal has started already. And all available data do not hint to any optimistic point about the preparation of Afghan security forces to hold the responsibility of security situation. They still lack equipment and profession to deal with guerilla war. Once it is said by a famous columnist that Afghans do not really in need of training and the only place that Afghans do not need training is war, because decades of civil war have made them enough experienced to fight and use various kinds of weapons. But something should be noticed----the combination of Afghan security forces. Those who were fighting during past years do not constitute visible part of current national security forces.
They whether left the country or are not willing to be recruited, because they fought much to satisfy the feeling of vanity and egotism.
Presently, remarkable parts of Afghan security forces are certainly unskilled and unprofessional warriors. They need to go under huge training by foreign countries in order to meet skilled insurgents who are fully experienced of guerrilla type tactics and operations. Otherwise, leaving Afghanistan will look more like leaving a boxing match with a bloody nose.