The New York Times has published a report that quotes an anonymous American official as saying that Russia has sent advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria which shows the strong and unshakable strategic tie between the two countries. Meanwhile, the Russian foreign Ministry, without confirming the report or giving details about the type of missile said that the supply did not break any international law.
However, Moscow has previously provided a version of missile to Syrian regime, called Yakhonts but those delivered recently are equipped with advanced radar that makes them more effective. Unlike other longer-range surface to surface missiles that the Assad government has used against oppositions forces, the Yakhonts anti-ship missile system provides the Syrian military a formidable weapon to counter any effort by international forces.
Recently, allegations put by oppositions and some of their supporters that the Assad’s regime has used chemical weapons against rebellions are constantly rejected by Damascus. President Assad frequently emphasized that its chemical weapons are safe and it wouldn’t use them against its own people, meanwhile, yet never retreated calling rebellions terrorist not the representative of people.
No doubt, many countries are closely watching when government forces embark to chemical weapons. It is widely believed that government will not leave any stone unturned in order to maintain power. After allegations that signs of chemical weapons are found in the country, President Barack Obama clearly set as redline. He previously said that chemical weapons were a redline for the United States, but he did not clarify whether he would order a military marsh or bargain for international military interference similar to that of Libya.
However, it is widely believed that crossing redline if not necessary may end to military interference but may bring about and accelerate the efforts to impose no fly-zone, naval embargo or carrying out limited military strikes on strong military headquarters. Now this recent missile supply can be very effective in preventing foreign countries to such act because they are able to target any naval embargo and create complexity in imposing no-fly zone.
"It enables the regime to deter foreign forces looking to supply the opposition from the sea, or from undertaking a more active role if a no-fly zone or shipping embargo were to be declared at some point,"
said Nick Brown, editor in chief of IHS Jane's International Defense Review. "It's a real ship killer” (Times of India) It is also said that Syrian’s strong arsenal would tend to push Western or allied activity further off the coast and also signal from Russia that it may not leave its regional ally this soon. Previously, there were reports that Russia has pulled out part of its citizens from the country which was interpreted as declining hope of Russia for the longer resistance of the regime.
The arsenal supply shows that it has not given up its support nor lost hope on President Assad’s regime. Otherwise, how it was possible that it supply radar outfitted missile which in lack of the regime will finally fall to hands of oppositions who certainly never forgive Russia for its support to Assad. It was strongly possible that without support of Russia and China sanctions might have been imposed paved the way for military interference which already ended the life of the regime.
I think the supply can remind us of two things: one, Russia will stand beside of Assad regime till the end unless United States and other Western countries ensure its strategic interest in possible Post-Assad Syria and provide something larger than its economic and political interest in Syria. Secondly, it still strongly believes that Assad’s regime will not fall this soon rather it oppositions finally fail to defeat the regime. Otherwise, it was not possible to supply such killer missiles.
Moreover, the disclosure comes after Washington and Moscow agreed to convene an international conference that is aimed at ending the brutal conflict in Syrian which has left more than 70,000 people according previous statistic of the United Nations. The conference is scheduled to be held early June. It already raised hopes for ending the violence which has crippled the country. The Russia does not want to appear from a weaker position in this conference. It asked that Iran should be present which also provide military and technical support to the regime.
Secretary of the state, Mr. John Kerry, has repeatedly said it is the United States’ hope to change President Assad’s calculations about his ability to hold on to power so that he will allow negotiations for a political solutions to the conflict. He indicated that he had raised the issue of Russian arms deliveries to Syria during his recent visit to Moscow but declined to provide details. "I think we've made it crystal clear we would prefer that Russia was not supplying assistance”.
American officials are worried that Iranian and Russian weapons strengthen the Assad psychologically also boost up its confidence that it can hold on power thus does not compromise with oppositions.
Indubitably, with supply of the recent arms representative of government and oppositions who will meet in the conference may not show willingness to move visibly back from its earlier positions.
I think the only solution can be the pressure of Western and regional countries on oppositions and similarly of Russia and China on Assad to resume a serious talk. Unless these powers emphasizing on their commitments they will stand till last breath, none of the sides will be prepared to lay down arms and solve the problem through diplomatic channels.