In recent months, Afghanistan has seen a wave of bloody attacks by the Taliban as part of the militants’ summer campaign of violence across the country. The militant groups have organized bold attacks on government installations, military bases, foreign diplomatic missions and aid agencies alongside road-side bombings and targeting security forces and innocent civilians. The substantial increase in violence in the cities and far corners of the country is of crucial importance as the next year presidential election is in sight and the NATO is withdrawing the bulk of its combat forces from Afghanistan. The Taliban are now fighting for gaining upper hand in the conflict, and if they manage to disrupt the election process and discredit the much-publicized process of security transition they will pose themselves as the winner and will come forward from an uncompromising stance in any future peace negotiations.

From security perspective, most probably there will be one of the two scenarios ahead for the ongoing conflict in the few beginning years of the post-2014 period, when US-led coalition have left the country: first, the war will continue unabated for many years, regardless of which side manages to gain achievements in the battlefield, and both the government and the Taliban will not be able to make difficult compromises for beginning a real process of peace negotiations. The second scenario will be that the two sides will come to the table of peace negotiations and begin a process that also might not bear any concrete result in years for ending the conflict. In both scenarios, any short-term gains, which the Taliban are now campaigning for, will benefit the insurgent groups whether on the negotiation table or in the battlefield.

Apart from this view, the militant groups are still determined to hamper a successful security transition by escalating violence and in particular by disrupting the election process. Because of this, the way the Afghan holds the forthcoming elections will greatly contribute to determine the nature and scope of any future peace negotiations with the Taliban and willingness of both sides to begin such a process. On the other hand, political stability and a safe political transition stemmed from fair and credible elections will make the Taliban insurgency much an easier challenge to tackle, comparing to having manifold political and security crises in the country.

Implementation of successful counter-insurgency measures ahead of the elections and complete withdrawal of foreign forces by end of 2014 will be vital for post-2014 security and peace negotiations. The Afghan government will able to have large-scale anti-insurgency plans in place before the next year NATO withdrawal and presidential election. With the surprise increase in insurgent attacks and the level of violence across the country, it seems an overhaul of security and anti-insurgency campaign is needed in the country to counter the resurgence of the Taliban and the increasing terrorist attacks in major cities and across the country.

It is time for the government to have a large-scale security plan, perhaps a transitional one, in place aimed at successfully passing the country from the 2014 timetable of security and political transitions. As part of such a plan, the government must considerably escalate military pressures on the insurgent groups in the battlefield and take the war to insurgent groups. The Afghan security institutions need to overhaul the current security arrangements for major cities, government and military installations and the major highways and review the present security system to effectively confront the insurgent groups trying to make the country insecure. As the NATO forces are in the course of drawdown, Afghan forces need to maintain the military pressure on the insurgent groups to avoid further security deterioration and Taliban resurgence in absence of the US-led international coalition forces after 2014. The Afghan government is running out of time to begin considering a well-defined transitional strategy ahead and after 2014.

In reaction to the worsening security in recent months, Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) carried out a number of major military operations in eastern provinces of Nangarhar and Logar, which were among the main target provinces of the insurgents trying to influence in the volatile eastern and southern provinces. Such counter-insurgency operations across the country will be effective to repel the resurgence of the insurgent groups in the provinces. In recent Afghan National Army (ANA) operations, hundreds of militants – many of whom Uzbek, Pakistani and Arabs – have been killed and many insurgency-hit provinces and districts cleared. As the transition process and the peace efforts are going ahead, the Afghan security forces should keep pressures up on the insurgency to safeguard the pre-election security across the country.

As part of a transitional security/anti-insurgency strategy, Afghanistan and its international backers should allocate more resources for strengthening Afghan intelligence agency in order to boost the vital intelligence that Afghan forces desperately need in their anti-insurgency campaign. Also the security agencies of Afghanistan should take concrete measures for protecting the country particularly Kabul city which has come under numerous attacks from the Taliban this year. Any major successful attack on the capital by the insurgent groups significantly strengthens the position of Taliban and their campaign of violence.

A robust military drive would also pave the way for reintegration of the Taliban as it would be very difficult for the militant leaders to sell the war to the war-weary followers when they have no gains on the ground. If we assume that the peace efforts will draw the Taliban back on negotiation table, peace negotiations with the Taliban would bear better results, if there are large-scale military campaigns going on against the insurgents on the ground. Eventually, Afghan National Security Forces should be sufficiently equipped and provided crucial military capabilities they need for a prolonged war after 2014.

Therefore, Afghanistan should be quick in signing the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US that will allow US troops to stay in Afghanistan beyond 2014. A sustained security partnership between Afghanistan and the US will determine the fate of the anti-insurgency efforts after 2014. A message to the militants should be sent now that no vacuum is going to be created in Afghanistan ahead of the NATO drawdown. An extensive anti-insurgency strategy would give Afghan forces confidence in fighting the insurgent groups across the country and ease widespread concerns related to the 2014 US withdrawal.