President Hamid Karzai, accompanied by other top officials, to visit Islamabad today for crucial talks with Pakistani officials. The trip is believed to be very determining in the future cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the Afghan peace process in coming years and the Kabul-Islamabad relations in general. Before his trip to Pakistan, President Karzai expressed hope that he would reach an agreement with Pakistani government to end militancy and extremism and that he would come back with concrete results from his negotiations with Pakistani officials. Given the ups and down of Kabul-Islamabad relations in recent months and President Karzai’s criticisms towards Pakistan, Karzai’s visit is very distinctive from his previous trips to the country, and he would certainly have difficult negotiations with top Pakistani officials, particularly Pakistan’s newly elected premier Nawaz Sharif.

Before his visit to Islamabad, Karzai attempted to send a message to Islamabad: that he knew the crucial role Pakistan could play in Afghan reconciliation process and the influence Islamabad had on Afghan Taliban leaders. In a meeting with Ulema Council members on Friday, President Karzai said the Taliban were powerless in regards with the ongoing peace efforts, adding that the government of Afghanistan is going to try to negotiate with Pakistan to bring peace in the country. President Karzai’s remarks regarding his intentions to hold talks with the US and Pakistan is suggesting a slight shift in his stance towards the peace process and involvement of external powers such as the US and Pakistan in the process. Previously, President Karzai’s main focus was to engage in direct peace talks with the insurgent groups, helplessly trying to convince the Taliban to come to direct negotiations with the Afghan government.

President Karzai’s Friday remarks is indicating that Afghanistan’s priority now lie on paving the way for direct talks with Taliban through making agreements with Pakistan led by a new civilian government in Islamabad. However, it is not to say that Afghanistan has given up to engaging in direct peace talks with Taliban, but now Afghan officials seem more eager to make compromises with Pakistan for brining Taliban leaders into negotiations table. In recent months, Afghan President had been in a defiance position against Pakistan, complaining of the country’s role in the Afghan peace process and, as Afghan officials have say, Pakistan’s unwillingness to cooperate with Afghan government to bring peace in the country. Initially Karzai had refused an invitation by Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to visit the country for talks regarding the ongoing peace efforts with the Taliban, complaining that his previous talks with Pakistani leaders had not borne any concrete results.

This time, both sides expect to bring some thaws to the strained relations of the two countries and reach agreements how to resume peace talks with the Taliban. It is expected that President Karzai would put forth a numbers of demands related to the peace efforts in Afghanistan. He will ask Pakistani officials to practically support the Afghan-led peace plan and bring Taliban leaders into direct peace talks with the Afghan government. Also, President Karzai may ask Islamabad to free those leaders of Taliban who can be helpful to the peace process and have influence on Taliban leadership, and do so in contact with the Afghan government. Afghanistan is increasingly feeling necessity of an important role to be played by Pakistan as the long-awaited Qatar efforts virtually failed and now there are reports of opening an office for the Taliban probably in Saudi Arabia or Turkey possibly.

last year, Pakistan has hinted signs of its willingness to cooperate with the Afghan government with the peace plan. As Afghanistan is rushing to secure a peace deal with Taliban and save the political and security transitions going on in the country, Pakistan has its own stakes in the Afghan peace efforts ahead of the NATO drawdown by end of 2014. The militant groups in Pakistan are creating havocs in Pakistani cities with their deadly campaign of violence against the secular government in Islamabad. Pakistan fears that a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan after NATO withdrawal could be detrimental for Pakistan too, as the Afghan Taliban have been inextricably intertwined with Pakistani Taliban, both supporting each other in their wars against Afghanistan, Pakistan and the US.

Despite Pakistan’s willingness for helping a peaceful settlement in pro-NATO Afghanistan, experts are of the view that Pakistan will continue to consider a great deal of power for the Taliban in any peace negotiations in the future. This has always been a source of Kabul suspicions towards Islamabad, despite that, for a short time, Pakistan’s willingness stirred optimisms in Afghan government and assured Kabul that Pakistan is willing to cooperate with the peace process in Afghanistan. In their London meeting hosted by UK Prime Minister David Cameron, Hamid Karzai and Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari, vowed peace in Afghanistan within six months. After that whimsical timeframe failed to bring peace, and other differences boiled again in Kabul-Islamabad relations, Afghan president once again turned critical of Islamabad.

With Karzai set to visit Islamabad, there are optimisms in Afghanistan regarding a likely deal between Afghanistan and Pakistan over the future peace efforts and negotiations with the Afghan Taliban. But given the fundamental differences between the two sides and the recent history of Kabul-Islamabad strained relations, any hope of reaching a remarkable deal between the two countries or any immediate and extensive cooperation between Kabul and Islamabad on the peace process is unrealistic. It is a right approach to reach agreements with Pakistan, before any direct peace efforts with the insurgent groups in Afghanistan.

However, the fact remains that reaching a deal with Pakistan would be as difficult as the Afghan government efforts to reach out directly to the Taliban. The two countries will be able to reach a long-standing cooperation for peace in both countries only if they commit themselves to long-term cooperation rather than setting unrealistic short-term promises. Therefore, the Afghan government should be prepared for long and tortuous negotiations with Islamabad with a long-term approach. Only such an approach would enable both Kabul and Islamabad to overcome differences and find common ground on peace efforts in Afghanistan – and Pakistan.