An imminent cloud of massive bloodshed roams over Syrian landscape more gigantic than the previous atrocities. You might have heard that eminent adage, “the friend of a friend renders friend, the enemy of a friend enemy, likewise the enemy of an enemy renders friend.” Russia, Iran, Syria and more or less China are strategic allies sharing common interests and form a pole of Syrian conflict, whilst America, France, Israel with inclusion to some of gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar constitute the opposite of pole. The former harsh disparagement and aggressive political statements pointed at corresponding political rivals are the manifestation of historic antagonism between the rivals.
Evidently, politics is the game of interests, nevertheless the war designed on the canvas of Middle East serves none’s interests yet turning a deaf ear to Syrian woes in the ongoing civil war is also unbearable and agreeable disposition. If the US and its allies go for military operation against Syria as planned the fire will be fueled. It is hard to foretell when this fire will extinguish prior to infliction of irreparable losses. Preliminary analysis shows that the Syrians will be the losers, yet broadly speaking the devastative effects of war might engulf fertile land far and wide.
UN estimates over 100,000 people have lost their lives in the ongoing civil war. The arming of rebels in Syria didn’t prove to be fruitful either from both human losses and political gain perspectives kept in view. Factually seeing the security experts in Pentagon used it as primary option to topple Assad’s regime. Seeing it doesn’t work alone, is to be supported with targeted surgical air strikes on important military installations, airports and telecommunication systems.
Formerly, the US President Barack Obama called Syria’s alleged use of chemical weapons a threat to US national security; Obama said the response would be “narrow” and “limited.” The gassing of innocent children and women is not acceptable; the political stance of US has come forth. However, the practical evidence to support US allegation has not come true yet. The drug inspection team of United Nation will uncover the results of tested samples, within three weeks. Provided, the UN doesn’t favor the possible military strike without the consent of other veto powers, US labeled harsh criticism at its capacity addressing the Syrian issue. The US president slammed the “incapacity” of the UN Security Council to act on Syria and warned the world must not be paralyzed on responding to a chemical weapons attack.
Russia is close ally of Syria and a veto power in UN Security Council, has twice vetoed US stance, asks for a credential evidence of alleged use of chemical weapons if exists. Russia warned of military operation if launched without consent of UN Security Council will be considered unilateral aggression and against the international laws.
US significantly rely on its intelligence reports for the use of chemical weapons. The US government released an unclassified intelligence report alleging the August 21 attack killed 1,429 Syrian civilians, including 426 children. The intelligence gathered for the US report included an intercepted communication by a senior official intimately familiar with the August 21 attack as well as other intelligence from people’s accounts and intercepted messages, the four-page report said.
To seek a congressional consent before taking military action against Damascus is not important for US president owing the position of chief of arm commands. Firstly, in doing so the issue will be put to moratorium for a week till the congress meets next week. Secondly, it’s feared that the congressman responding to dissents of war weary masses of US turn down following the British parliamentarians voting against a military strike.
Apart from economic losses the war will bring lengthened sufferings to Syrians. It too, inflicts worst catastrophic effects on Middle East in general and the world in particular. If not technically handled the battle of hatred might affect many Muslim countries, widening the sectarian divides.
If military action is exercised against Syria in spite of the aforementioned concerns, what could be probable course left to Syria to retaliate and defend itself?
It is rightly said that wars are won with commitment, national unity, wise strategies aided most importantly with the latest weaponry. The defense system of Syria comprises of mostly old and some new weaponry granted by Russia and radar system previously supplies by China. If US goes with air strikes using fixed wing aircrafts exterior to Syrian territory might put Syrian government to a great difficulty to retaliate.
If the Syrian government fails to counter, the two possible options are underlined. One being the expedition of the military operation against rebels imparting greater degree of confidence to the combating troops on the ground and making the West learn of its solid commitment.
To launch attack on US forces in Jordan, turkey and Israel expanding the war territory renders as another alternative. Having opted this option will proof to be quiet perilous provided both Turkey and Israel are supplied with anti-missile system and vibrant defense system. They can well defend themselves; nonetheless the Syrian harms multiply exponentially. The opening of multifaceted gateways might doubly increase Syria’s turmoil.
The Arab Spring accompanying regime change in many countries stalled subsequent to reaching Syria. Bashar-ul-Asad demonstrated a high degree of restraint towards the disgruntled public opposition asking for regime change. The use of force began by the government made the Protestants go with counter retaliation. Gradually the state of affairs worsened. No paradigm shift took place except the intensification of miseries of common masses that are left to endless sufferings. The Arab Spring turned to quivering winter when the militarily equipped Syrian forces and rebels continued rendering tough resistance, taking the use of all possible tactics of warfare.
It is asserted that an alternate channel making the peace talks should be worked out. If the international community is interested to reduce the human and infrastructure losses in Syria they must play their part, effectively.