In the run-up to the presidential elections, numerous challenges, from security to political, are being highlighted as potential threats to the election process. Recent statements by security officials suggest that nearly half of all voting centers would be faced with different levels of security threats. In a briefing to the National Security Council, Former Acting Interior Minister Mujtaba Patang has said that 3,410 out of the total 6,845 planned center would face different levels of threats – from low-level to medium and serious. Concerns about the ability of Afghan security agencies to provide adequate security for the election process are being escalated while previously the officials had said that security agencies would be able to provide security

at polling sites across the country.

Given the recent assessments of the government officials from the security perspective for the election process, it seems that cautions made by Fazl Ahmad Manawi, the former head of the Independent Election Commission (IEC) is justified. In reaction to the initial assurances by the security officials, Manawi had expressed skepticisms about ability of the Afghan security forces to provide adequate security for the ongoing voter registrations and the elections, saying that the assurance given by security agencies to the IEC were misleading, exaggeration and unrealistic based on security conditions on the ground and the previous parliamentary elections. Obviously, the calls for better election security should be heeded. Any false promises by security officials regarding the security situation would be misleading to the people as well as to the election commission.

For sure, the worsening security situation would remain as the greatest challenge for the forthcoming elections, and if the government fails to provide sufficient security for the process, the impact may be a very low turn-out in some parts of the country. This would effectively harm the process and pave the way for political interferences to the process. The Taliban are determined to disrupt the election process by intensifying attacks on election workers and polling stations as well as threatening the voters. Along escalating violent campaign across the country, the Taliban have warned the people not to participate in the election process. In his recent Eid message, the Taliban fugitive leader Mullah Omar dismissed the presidential elections as a game, warning the people not to go to polling centers for voting.

On the other hand, Afghanistan has no option but to go ahead with the election plan to choose a successor to the incumbent President, Hamid Karzai. The presidential election is considered as vital in the forthcoming political transition, and any failure in the political transition could be disastrous for the future of Afghanistan. There are moves from certain groups to persuade President Karzai to prolong his rule beyond his legal term. But so far, the president himself has been cautious about any moves that could be interpreted as his efforts for delaying or manipulating the elections or even sticking to power after his legal term. On Tuesday, a gathering of tribal elders in Kabul called on presidential elections to be delayed until 2018 due to bad security situation across the country. Any such prospect for the election process would be meant as an irreparable blunder for the future of the country. Only a credible and fair process of elections would guarantee a safe transition process and save the future of the country.

And, there are also concerns of other nature to the elections: Government interventions in the process. The recent appointments to the top security posts have prompted fresh concerns for the Afghan political spectrum about possible manipulation of the elections by President Karzia’s inner circle of power. Recently appointed to the top security post, Omar Daudzai, former Afghan ambassador to Islamabad, officially took over his new job as acting interior minister on Monday. The appointment is made shortly after Rahmatullah Nabil was appointed as the acting director of the National Directorate for Security (NDS).

In the Monday ceremony, Daudzai vowed to maintain neutrality of police in the election process. But, this is exactly the thing that has raised concerns and has been interpreted as government’s intended move to tighten its grip on the agencies that would have a crucial role in the election process. Mr. Daudzai, who has worked as Karzai’s chief of staff before, is considered a close ally to the President. Previously, Daudzai was tipped as a potential candidate for president having backing of President Karzai. His appointment to the post is suggesting that he will not be running in the presidential elections, as he soon will go to the parliament for approval of the lawmakers in his new post.

Along with Foreign Minister Zalmay Rassoul, Daudzai was among those who were considered the most probable figures to be tacitly backed by Karzai in the elections. Now, it seems that Rassoul is emerging as a likely candidate backed by Karzai’s inner circle in the elections. However, still it is hard to predict president Karzai’s preferred choice and his backing to the candidate, since he has refrained from any move that could be meant as support to any possible candidate. However, the recent appointments are signs that President Karzai is making moves to appoint his close allies to the posts that will oversee the elections. However, Karzai has stressed so far that he would remain above the fray. If this is going to be the real play by Karzai, it would help holding a fair election acceptable to everyone. Karzai’s fair role would be vital for the process, and he should play such a role if he cares for his legacy and the future of the country.

Also, neutrality of the security agencies and the IEC would be the key for building a national consensus among the main stakeholders on how to safeguard the forthcoming election with an outcome acceptable to all. Afghanistan has experienced fraudulent elections in the past, and the reminiscence of those electoral malpractices and irregularities is daunting for the people of Afghanistan. The IEC should strongly confront any efforts to influence the body, particularly by the government and other political players and guarantee a fair and free election process.