It seems that the military option, at least for now, has been put off the table. It has allowed the world to breath in relief as all are worried about the broader consequence of another war in the tensed Middle East. President Assad agreed on the so-called Russian proposal—handing over the stockpile of country’s chemical weapon under the international control to prevent a possible attack by US and its allies. In response, President Obama has agreed that he would call off the punitive strike he previously was struggling to other countries for joining the US.
Presently, the American and Russian diplomats are working closely on plan of how international community should monitor the process of handover. The US is pressing ahead to a set timeframe and force the regime to commence the process urgently. On Friday, US officials said that the White House expected that it would take around two weeks to discover whether the Russian-led initiative to take President Bashar al-Assad's chemical weapons under international control was viable. Such timeframe is aimed to keep pressure on the regime in order to make sure that it is using his agreement to buy time as oppositions believe. Right after the agreement of Syrian government, the Free Syrian Army Coalition dismissed the agreement, arguing that the regime tried to “buy time”.
On the other hand, some believe the regime needs a long period than the one, American officials are trying to set. A senior Russian lawmaker said Saturday that the United States was setting an unrealistic timeframe. "The demand by the United States to hand over chemical weapons to international control in two or three weeks is simply unprofessional," Alexei Pushkov, the head of the Russian parliament's foreign affairs committee, wrote on Twitter. "In Syria there are at least 42 storage facilities, some of them in battle zones," he added.
No doubt, part of the problem lies with technical issues. US and Russian diplomats should closely work with chemical weapons experts and technicians how long does it take to hand over the entire stockpile under supervision of international community. So, it might get troublesome if enough time is not given particularly the entire country is boiling in instability and bloodshed and definitely regime does not have full control over various regions which will hamper the transfer of arsenal stockpiles.
In spite of US assertion for urgent handover, I think the diplomats of both countries may end up to an appropriate timetable enough for the completion of handover. I do not think so that due to huge global opposition to military intervention, the US once again put the military option on the table without waiting for Syrian regime to try its chances for prevention of possible attack. So, it is highly possible that diplomatic initiative has worked and the US does not have any intention to strike the country unless anything major goes wrong.
But we should notice that the going crisis has nothing to do with chemical weapons. The resolution of country’s chemical weapons problem would do nothing to stop the bloodshed. Two and half years ago when people marched into streets, they were asking for democracy and economic reforms. But now what all Syrian will think is how to put their children back to school and start a normal life. Presently, for common people living a life they had before the uprising seems like an unrealizable dream.
One of the strong nations in the region has been erased. The economic infrastructures are dismantled. In the best possible scenario, it will take decades to raise country to its previous stage of prosperity and economic and political stability.
More than hundred thousand of people were killed and millions escaped the country. In addition, it also has deeply divided the society. All religious and ethnic groups were living harmoniously and had no problem with one another during history. Presently, the country is divided on the sectarian and communal lines.
Visible part of armed opposition is not fighting for bringing democracy rather holding Jihad to topple an Alawite regime. Because they consider that Alawites are perverted sect of Islam against whom war is religious obligation. Kurdish, that were trying to maintain their neutral status, are forced to engage in the war as some Kurdish populated villages were attacked by radical Islamists. Similar scenario will be repeated in the case of Christians who were enjoying equal rights under the secular regime of Assad’s family. In lack of a strong central government, the possibility of territorial disintegration increases.
Violence and bloodshed have created social division and communal suspension. The earlier trust and harmony have been lost. Radical groups consider the entire Alawite sect culpable in crimes committed by government. If they get the power, it is highly possible that they will seek revenge. That is something Alawite clearly understand. The largest ethnic group without a government Kurds will certainly try for federal system similar to Iraq. But if radical groups come to power, it is highly possible they even push for independency because they may not live with strictly Islamist government. This is for the future.
Presently, the situation is far gruesome. No sides are ready to take serious steps to end the years-long bloodshed. Countries at regional and international are divided. They do not agree on a common ground to resolve the country’s crisis for their own illusionary political and economic interests. It should be noticed with ravaged country, no one will benefit except neighboring countries that envied the power of the nation.
Therefore, after striking deal on chemical weapons, Russia, US and other involved countries work seriously on how to find a diplomatic solution. All should mount pressure on their favorite parties to stop killing people and commence a meaningful negotiation to resolve their problems. Otherwise, we would witness far horrible pictures and videos posted from August 21 chemical attack.