With the 2014 presidential election in Afghanistan in sight, many express concerns that there may be a fraudulent election in 2014 or even the transition process may get derailed as there are efforts by certain circles to postpone the 2014 presidential election. All the skepticisms are to the point to some extent. But the fact is that there are strong and sufficient evidences for arguing that such a scenario for Afghanistan’s future is quite unlikely.

First – Political Consensus

Perhaps no one can ignore the fact that there is now a broad consensus among the Afghan political elite that the only option for safeguarding the future of the country is a fair and legitimate presidential election that will be acceptable to everyone. All the stakeholders of the Afghan politics are supporting the ongoing process for next year elections as their formal stance regarding the ongoing political transition. So far, all the pro-government groups, opposition parties, Jihadi leaders have backed the ongoing election process and most probably they will do so in the near future. At this stage, it is extremely difficult and quite unlikely for the political elite and the government to change course and shift position from backing the current process of political transition. In fact, there is an unsigned agreement and some sorts of consensus among the Afghan political elite about the future course of the country and the elections that will be held next year.

Second – Karzai’s Commitment

Everyone knows that the key to a fair and free election is a genuine commitment of the Afghan government, particularly President Karzai. Attempting to dispel the rumors that he is seeking to cling to power after the end of his legal term, Karzai has repeatedly asserted that he has no intention of staying in power after his second term in power ends in 2014. What is irrefutable is that Karzai is concerned for his legacy and what will be left from him in the future. No doubt he is also concerned about his safety and that of his family and family wealth. But so far he has remained committed to his pledge for saving his legacy and the future of the country. In May, he said there was “no circumstance that will allow me to stay as president.” “And there are two reasons for that,” he said. “Why would I ruin my legacy by staying on and taking an opportunity away from Afghanistan to become an institutionalized democracy?”

Earlier in March, when he was speaking to a joint session of the parliament, Karzai stressed that he was committed to a fair and free presidential election. He said if there is a fair election, he would be remembered by history; otherwise, the people would blame him for all the miseries in the country. The president said he didn’t want to have a bad image in the history of the Afghanistan. Though there are still suspicions that he might try to handpick a successor and weigh in behind a candidate he prefers. He might do so. But for sure, it is very unlikely that Karzai manipulate the election to the extent that derails the process, because he has proved during the past more than a decade that he has the craft to handle the politics without risking its very existence.

Third, Role of international community

Time and again, the international allies of Afghanistan and the United States particular has made it clear that the forthcoming presidential election in Afghanistan should be fair and acceptable to the Afghan political society. In July 2012, the donor countries participating in the Tokyo international conference for Afghanistan pledged to give billions in aid to Afghanistan for development and military funding. But the pledges were conditional. It its part, Afghanistan obliged to fight corruption, promote good governance and held free and fair presidential election in 2014. The international community made it clear in the Tokyo conference that they would not be committed to fund Afghanistan if the country fails to fulfill the promises it has made to the Tokyo conference.

Cautiously, US officials have stressed the need for a transparent election in Afghanistan due to be held next year. There is much at stake for the US if the government of Afghanistan fails to hold a transparent election. US and its allied nations have spent billions of treasures and spilled blood to save the mission in Afghanistan. Therefore, the United States does seem to be prepared to just sit and watch the achievements in Afghanistan going away by a flawed election. The US and other members of the international coalition in Afghanistan is going to have their military mission in place even after 2014 when the US-led NATO mission ends. Keeping their military and civilian presence, the world has a lot of leverage to press Kabul for fighting corruption and holding transparent and acceptable elections.

Fourth, the ghost of past

The last and the foremost reason why Afghanistan will go in the right direction is that the people of Afghanistan and particularly the upper political and economic class are well aware of the consequences of a possible political declining in the country. For the mass, there is now an ever-higher level of awareness, particularly in large cities, and the past is deeply daunting Afghans. In contrast to the common understanding and the media coverage, despite the dominant presence of Mujahedin in politics, the individual Afghans rarely feel themselves loyal to those who had roles in the past conflicts. It can be perceived from daily conversations. Almost all Afghans blame Mujahedin for the atrocities of the past and for the destructions the wars inflicted to the country. When visiting ordinary Afghans, one can easily see that despite having sentiments of ethnicity, the individuals feel themselves loyal to ethnic leaders to a limited extent.

On the other hand, the political elite of Afghanistan have extensively benefited in the last over-a-decade from the unchecked foreign aid and Afghanistan’s economic growth with its real estate bonanza and mining boom while the pervasive corruption has remained untouched. The fact that a broad and complicated network of political and business patronage have benefited upper political class of Afghans is a factor for stability. The political elite are well aware of the consequences of a flawed election process or even a derailment of the political process: such a scenario would mean for them losing all the privileges they have gained through patronage or corruption in the last twelve years. And they are ready for that. They are not willing to lose all these by start of another crisis. Therefore the political elite are keener for a sustained political stability which would protect their interests. All these factors play cohesively in deterring another crisis by loss of legitimacy in the forthcoming elections.