After flurry of diplomatic moves in recent weeks, Pakistan released Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the co-founder of the Taliban and ex-right-hand man to the Taliban leader Mullah Omar. Mullah Baradar, who was arrested in 2010, is believed to be highly influential in the ranks of the Taliban leadership. His release is considered as a victory for Karzai’s attempts to convince Pakistan to release high-profile prisoners of the Taliban; however, contradictorily it is also seen as a major setback for the US-led international coalition to see release of one of the founding members of the Taliban from prison after twelve years of anti-insurgency efforts. Mullah Baradar’s release is suggesting that Pakistan is gradually but cautiously moving to play a role in the Afghan peace process.

With the release of Mullah Baradar, the Afghan government is now bracing for resumption of negotiations with the Taliban and initiating secret contacts with the militant leaders. The move to release Baradar is coming as a major development in the efforts for peace negotiations after the Qatar initiative stalled in the aftermath of the opening of the Taliban political office in the gulf country. The immediate questions hovering in minds are whereabouts of the Mullah Baradar after his release and the role he could play for the peace process and beginning of talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Most likely, now the Afghan government representatives and the High Peace Council agents will attempt to contact Mullah Baradar to gauge his stance over the peace initiative in Afghanistan and his influence and status in the Taliban leadership.

So far, it is not clear where Mullah Baradar will go. Pakistan has made it clear that Islamabad wants the Taliban senior leader to choose Saudi Arabia or Turkey as his destination. The government of Afghanistan is eager to establish contact with him as from now on he could be a key point of contacts between the Afghan High Peace Council (HPC) and the Taliban leadership. In the last three years, one of the greatest obstacles for the Afghan HPC’s peace efforts was that it was unable to establish direct contacts with the Taliban senior members as the leaders and military commanders of the group were in hiding in Pakistan or engaged in war in Afghanistan. For once, Afghan and Western negotiators ran into a real debacle after an imposter peace envoy turned to be a shopkeeper from Quetta.

The whereabouts of Mullah Baradar after his release would considerably determine the future course of the talks – whether secret negotiations or formal talks. If Baradar chooses to reunite with the Taliban leadership – known as the Quetta Shura – both Afghan High Peace Council and Pakistan will lose the clue they are trying to manage to have contacts with him after his release. Probably because of this and because of Pakistan’s preference, Mullah Baradar is set to go to one of the Islamic countries either Turkey or Saudi Arabia. And if Baradar is sent to one of the two countries, then Pakistan and Afghanistan would be able to keep contact with him and possibly with some other Taliban leaders.

Now both Afghanistan and Pakistan expect Mullah Baradar to open a window for negotiations with the so-called moderate leaders of the Taliban. It is believed that after the Taliban regime was toppled by US invasion in 2001, many Taliban senior figures went to anonymity, sidelined by more hard-liner figures of the Taliban, or sought refuge in one of the Arab countries while some others chose to live in Afghanistan such as Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, former Taliban envoy to Pakistan. Therefore, the common belief that the Quetta Shura is including all former top leaders of the Taliban is simply wrong, and the right thing is that there are dozens of the Taliban leaders out there who are not directly involved in the current insurgency and are somehow at the periphery of the umbrella group. Probably it is more likely that Mullah Baradar will be able to revive some influence over these figures of the Taliban and build a broader consensus for peace talks among former members of the group. However, the Afghan government expects that Mullah Baradar still could exert some levels of influence over both the core leadership of the insurgency and other senior former figures who are not now included in the core leadership of the group.

But the fact remains that it is the core leadership of the Taliban which is commanding the ongoing insurgency against the Afghan government. Regarding this core group particularly the Quetta Shura, it is unclear what role Mullah Baradar could play to convince them for peace talks, and whether he will have any influence on the central leadership of the Taliban. As a Taliban spokesman said, the most likely presumption is that Mullah Baradar will be an individual with no power and influence over the Quetta Shura as he has lost the clout he once enjoyed in the Taliban leadership during his three years in prison. The once second-in-command of the Taliban is far away from being highly influential as the setup of power structure of the Taliban has undergone considerable changes during past three years. Mullah Baradar would only be able to revive some of his influence in the leadership of the Taliban only if the group does not demote the once co-founder of the militant group.

A third but distant option for future whereabouts of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is that he returns and chooses Afghanistan for living, but this would effectively sever his ties with the Taliban leaders commanding the fight against the US and the Afghan government. If coming to Afghanistan, he will lose trust of the Taliban senior figures. Therefore, it is more likely for him to be sent to Saudi Arabia or Turkey, from where he could manage to contact the current leaders of the Taliban as well as other former senior members of the group who still have maintained overt and covert relationships with the core leadership of the militant group.